Beset by challenges, can Biden turn things around?
| Washington
President Joe Biden can’t seem to catch a break. Inflation is crushing consumers, while recession looms over the economy. Gun violence is raging, and COVID-19 cases are rising. The baby formula shortage persists, and so on.
Mr. Biden’s average job approval rating at this point in his tenure – 38.5% – is now the lowest of any president since World War II.
Why We Wrote This
President Joe Biden won because he was seen as a unifier. Now, even many Democrats say they want a different kind of leader. But other presidents have had rough starts – and recovered.
If Ronald Reagan was the Teflon president – bad news often just slid off, it seemed – Mr. Biden may be the Velcro president. Everything sticks.
It’s worth noting that the party that wins the White House almost always loses seats in congressional elections two years later. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all won reelection despite losing ground in their first midterms.
Mr. Biden, in some ways, has the worst of all possible worlds. His party controls both houses of Congress, creating the appearance of power, but Democrats’ extremely narrow majorities make it very difficult to get anything done.
“The person in charge always gets way too much credit when things are good, and way too much blame when they’re bad,” says former Republican strategist Dan Schnur. “Biden’s not all that unique in this regard.”
President Joe Biden can’t seem to catch a break. Inflation is crushing consumers, and gas prices, while going down, are expected to rise again – possibly just in time for the November midterms. The R-word, recession, looms over the economy. Gun violence is raging. COVID-19 cases are rising again. The baby formula shortage persists. And on and on.
All American presidents live or die, politically, by the headlines – whether or not the bad news is their fault. But President Biden seems to have it worse, with the lowest average job approval rating at this point in his tenure – 38.5% – of any president since World War II.
If Ronald Reagan was the Teflon president – bad news often just slid off, it seemed – Mr. Biden is the Velcro president. Everything sticks.
Why We Wrote This
President Joe Biden won because he was seen as a unifier. Now, even many Democrats say they want a different kind of leader. But other presidents have had rough starts – and recovered.
“The person in charge always gets way too much credit when things are good, and way too much blame when they’re bad,” says former Republican strategist Dan Schnur. “Biden’s not all that unique in this regard. What’s different is the level of unhappiness, not just from the other side or even from swing voters, but from his own base.”
Indeed, the latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows Mr. Biden’s job approval at just 70% among Democrats. And a whopping 64% of party members say they want someone else as their standard-bearer in the next presidential election.
Mr. Biden’s age, close to 80, is his biggest liability, according to the poll. Democrats ranked it as the top reason to find an alternative for 2024. It’s not just the number itself – it’s the sense that he’s slowed down. Taking a tumble from his bike last month while on a getaway in Delaware, photos and video of which went viral, didn’t help.
Democratic activists want a fighter, says Mr. Schnur, who teaches at the University of Southern California and the University of California, Berkeley and is now a political independent. “They want someone who will yell and scream and threaten the other side with destruction. That’s not who Biden is.”
Ironically, two years ago, Democrats nominated Mr. Biden because he was seen as a unifier, not a partisan warrior – an experienced Washington hand who could defeat President Donald Trump and bring back “normalcy.” Mr. Biden succeeded in unseating Mr. Trump, and now many party activists seem to want their own version of the former president.
But for the time being, Mr. Biden occupies the Oval Office, and the question is, can he get his presidency back on track? And are there any lessons from history that he can take to heart?
It’s worth noting that the party that wins the White House almost always loses seats in congressional elections two years later – sometimes a lot of seats. Mr. Reagan didn’t become the Teflon president until after his party did poorly in the 1982 midterms, when the recession of the early ’80s – with unemployment topping 10% – helped Democrats net 26 House seats and one Senate seat.
Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all won reelection despite losing ground in their first midterms. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, by contrast, were one-termers.
Mr. Biden – or the Democratic nominee, if Mr. Biden opts out – could well go the way of Presidents Carter and Bush, particularly if the economy is still wracked by high inflation in 2024 and possibly in recession. The Democrats can be credibly blamed for underestimating the risk of inflation as they spent big in 2021. And the old Clinton-era campaign mantra that sent the first President Bush into retirement after one term still holds: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Control of Congress – but barely
Mr. Biden, in some ways, has the worst of all possible worlds. His party controls both houses of Congress, creating the appearance of power, but Democrats’ extremely narrow majorities make it very difficult to get anything done.
Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a Democrat representing one of the most Republican states in the country, crushed his party’s dreams Thursday when he declined to back Mr. Biden’s climate change measures in an already slimmed-down Build Back Better bill. In a 50-50 Senate, with the vice president as the tiebreaker, one dissenting Democrat is all it takes to squash a deal. Now the party is trying to pass an even smaller spending package focused on health care, lowering prescription drug costs and maintaining insurance subsidies in the Affordable Care Act.
That’s not nothing – far from it, say Democratic strategists, who urge Mr. Biden and his surrogates to publicize his administration’s accomplishments and project optimism heading into November. And yes, they add, Democrats have to bring the fight, particularly on matters of profound consequence, such as the Supreme Court’s June decision that overturned the nationwide right to abortion. The White House’s seemingly muted initial response to the ruling confounded some Democrats, especially after the leaked draft of the decision provided advance warning.
Karen Finney, former communications director for the Democratic National Committee, says Mr. Biden and the Democrats have a positive story to tell, and rattles off issues: On COVID-19, there’s the nationwide distribution of vaccines and therapeutics. On infrastructure, there’s the years-in-the-making passage of bipartisan legislation that will bring tangible benefits around the country. On guns, there’s the just-passed gun safety measure – the first to pass in decades, and again, with bipartisan support.
“Governing is still campaigning in so many ways,” Ms. Finney says. “You have to get out there and say, ‘Here’s what we’ve done; here’s what we’re going to do.’ Make it about the future.”
Ann Lewis, former communications director in the Clinton White House, urges perspective in the face of bad polls.
“I’m a Biden optimist,” Ms. Lewis says. The polls that show most voters see the nation as on the wrong track are “a national feelings thermometer,” she adds. “But as we get closer to the election, they will reflect a choice. Joe Biden will do better when it’s a choice.”
Even now, she notes, Mr. Biden would beat Mr. Trump 44% to 40% in a rematch if the election were held today, according to the Times/Siena poll.
As for progressive groups that are already openly calling on Mr. Biden not to run for reelection, Ms. Lewis is dismissive. “They tend to be the kind of people who’ve always believed that if only Democrats would say what they think, we’d do better,” she says.
Looking to this November, one critical factor is whether Mr. Trump announces another run for the presidency before the midterms. If he does, most Democrats see that as a gift to their side, giving their party a foil to run against.
A series of gaffes
Still, the at-times bad optics around Mr. Biden’s public actions are a regular source of discomfort for Democrats. The president’s fist bump Friday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – a man Mr. Biden once pledged to treat as a “pariah” over the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi – will be the enduring image of a visit that likely won’t bring immediate benefit to Americans.
Foreign policy, in general, isn’t likely to boost Mr. Biden’s domestic political fortunes, not even his widely praised role in rallying NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. More often, it’s the blunders abroad – such as the United States’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer – that voters remember.
Closer to home, Mr. Biden’s at-times shaky performance as a public communicator can be hard to escape. On July 4, at a picnic on the South Lawn of the White House for military families, Mr. Biden’s remarks barely touched on the mass shooting that had taken place that day in Highland Park, Illinois.
But presidential historians aren’t ready to write Mr. Biden off.
“Politics obviously changes very fast, and political fortunes can turn around very quickly,” says Matthew Dallek, a professor at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management. “That’s not to predict that Biden’s will – I have no idea,” he adds. “But I don’t think Biden is as much of an outlier at this moment as he might appear to be.”
The attacks on Mr. Biden’s age and acuity may be resonating more because of the many challenges the country faces. And, Professor Dallek says, “on a handful of issues Biden has appeared to be slow to react or not as aggressive as maybe some of his critics would like him to be.”
That’s a different dynamic from, say, former Presidents Clinton or Obama, who were seen as rising leaders of a new generation. But Mr. Dallek notes, “The narrative sometimes flips and there’s a comeback story. I’m not ready to write Biden off, at least just yet.”
