2023
January
11
Wednesday

Monitor Daily Podcast

January 11, 2023
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Perhaps like many people, when I think of the word “river” I haven’t usually associated it with the sky. Now it’s quite possible we all will.

What scientists call atmospheric rivers, colossal loads of airborne moisture traveling generally at low altitudes until they become rain, are behind the floods that are making safety for Californians a big issue this week.  

These aren’t a new feature of the West Coast climate. But what’s notable in the past couple of weeks is the frequency and magnitude of these airborne rivers, says Julie Kalansky, a researcher at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Flooding and high waves have swept from Northern California to the Los Angeles area. Many coastal and mountain zones have seen more than 14 inches of rain in the past two weeks, saturating the landscape and prompting both precautionary evacuations and courageous rescues (as well as some 17 deaths). 

It’s making very clear that these rivers aren’t small. According to one estimate, atmospheric rivers over the Northeast Pacific Ocean generally transport water equal to about 27 Mississippi Rivers. 

The strong consensus among atmospheric scientists is that climate change is making the patterns more intense, says Dr. Kalansky, who is operations manager at the center.

“As the atmosphere warms, it is able to hold more water,” she says. “The big [atmospheric rivers] are expected to become even more extreme.”

This doesn’t mean every winter will see deluges like this one. But researchers do predict that more of California’s water in the future will come from these rivers, and less from other kinds of storms. The state’s already-large swings between wet and dry may increase.

Communities will be called on to adapt to stay safe. Already, California has begun investing more in forecasting these hard-to-predict storms.

Another priority for the state: better reservoir management. The goal is capturing needed water when it comes, while also being mindful of how over-full reservoirs can make it harder to manage flood risks.  

When you think of California’s future, remember: Some rivers run through it.


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Today's stories

And why we wrote them

A deeper look

John Minchillo/AP/File
A mob loyal to former President Donald Trump tries to break through a police barrier Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol in Washington. The former president is facing three separate investigations, not including the Jan. 6 committee’s decision in December to refer him for criminal charges of inciting an insurrection and obstructing Congress.

The U.S. has never prosecuted a leader for criminal wrongdoing. But other countries have. Their experiences show it is a serious test of a democracy, but it’s a test that many democracies have passed.

Taylor Luck
Hanin Rizaqallah (left) and her husband, Maher, stand in their home garden in Farkha, West Bank, Oct. 25, 2022. Farming has made Ms. Rizaqallah a pillar of her village community and a provider of food for dozens of households.

Growing food, distributing water, improving schools: Residents of a West Bank village are blending a cooperative tradition with modern volunteerism to enhance their autonomy from Israel and the inefficient Palestinian Authority.

Howard LaFranchi/The Christian Science Monitor
Jose Dominic, developer of Kerala's CGH corporation in lodging and hospitality, stands on the Main Street of Kochi's old town, where Mr. Dominic is developing a small boutique hotel.

The policies that helped India’s Kerala state punch above its weight on economic and social welfare now appear to be holding it back. Can leaders adapt the long-heralded Kerala model to ensure future prosperity?

A deeper look

Infant adoption in the U.S. has evolved over the past half-century, with significant progress in dismantling legacies of secrecy. Is that enough to make adoption a first-choice alternative to abortion?

Essay

Jan Woitas/Picture-Alliance/DPA/AP/File
A boy takes on a hill in Leipzig, Germany. Pedaling uphill may leave you gasping for breath; going downhill can also leave you breathless.

Childhood venues often seem diminished when revisited as an adult. But some may loom just as large or larger, both mentally and physically.


The Monitor's View

Amid repeated studies showing that humanity is falling short of its targets to reduce global warming emissions, the United Nations issued some good news this week. The ozone, a thin layer of the upper atmosphere that shields Earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation, is healing.

That offers timely confirmation that nations can successfully unite to address environmental problems caused by human activity and potentially reverse the course of climate change. The conclusion was published in the agency’s latest four-year assessment of compliance with a 1987 international treaty banning an array of chemical substances that were damaging the protective layer.

The success of the Montreal Protocol charts a pathway in human thinking from alarm to cooperation to innovation in response to a common threat. It is “an encouraging example of what the world can achieve when we work together,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres tweeted.

A bond of three oxygen atoms, ozone is found in the stratosphere about 9 to 15 miles above the planet’s surface. In the early 1970s, scientists began warning that the gases then commonly used as refrigerants and spray-can propellants were deteriorating the layer by breaking apart ozone molecules. Those initial warnings led to limited bans on aerosols made of chlorofluorocarbons in the United States and a few European countries.

But broader consensus was elusive until scientists reported a massive hole in the ozone over Antarctica in 1985. That sparked a global response. Within two years, 46 countries gathered in Montreal to sign an agreement phasing out the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. Today it is one of the few universally ratified environmental treaties, adopted by 197 countries and amended to govern 96 different substances used in thousands of industrial applications.

Although climate change is a much larger and more economically diversified challenge, the global response to the ozone threat holds useful lessons – particularly building trust among potential adversaries – that can lead to stronger regulations and faster innovation. As Robert Falkner, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, noted in the 2005 book “The Business of Global Environmental Governance,” chemical companies played a pivotal constructive role in the Montreal Protocol’s design and subsequent success.

“The fact that we rarely talk about the ozone anymore is a testament to our success in tackling it,” wrote Hannah Ritchie, head of research at Our World in Data, in Works in Progress online magazine. “We can involve every country. ... And we can take action quickly when we’re running up against time.”

The U.N. estimates the ozone layer will be restored to its 1980 condition by 2040. The study found that compliance with the treaty and subsequent amendments has helped mitigate global warming by as much as a full degree Celsius.

“Science,” the U.N. stated, “has been one of the foundations of the Montreal Protocol’s success.” The report is a note of calm in an atmosphere of alarm and frustration. It marks the potency of honesty, unity of purpose, and persistence – qualities of thought that can brighten humanity’s pathway through climate change.


A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

Amid news reports of turmoil in Brasília, a woman from Brazil shares inspiration that has brought hope and fueled her prayers.


A message of love

Lou Mongello/Reuters
Stranded passengers wait at the Orlando International Airport as all U.S. flights were grounded after an FAA system outage on Jan. 11, 2023. The FAA says a failure of its Notice to Air Missions System, which sends safety notifications to pilots, required a hard reset overnight. More than 7,300 flights were delayed and 1,000 canceled. The FAA’s computer systems are antiquated and its infrastructure in urgent need of updating, the U.S. Travel Association says.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Jacob Turcotte. )

A look ahead

That’s all for today. Please join us again tomorrow when our Patterns columnist Ned Temko highlights how moments of moral clarity make a difference in national and world affairs.

More issues

2023
January
11
Wednesday

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