As Syrian rebels advance, what can Iran and its tired allies do for Assad?
| LONDON
Iran and its alliance of regional militias are seeking once again to defend the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as Sunni Islamist rebels make swift territorial gains, from northwest Aleppo south to Hama.
But Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” fighters, chief among them Lebanese Hezbollah, are all degraded and distracted after more than a year of war with Israel.
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A story focused onWhat can Iran do to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad defeat newly energized rebel forces? Its anti-Israel “Axis of Resistance” has been overworked and diminished. Yet even as Iran searches for solutions, there are some suggestions that it is not panicking.
“This whole thing is coming at the worst moment for Iran and the Axis, and I think also explains the timing on the side of the rebels,” says Hamidreza Azizi at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Nevertheless, there has been consternation but not panic in Iran about the investment of billions of dollars over many years, both to defend Mr. Assad and to create the Axis.
“[Rebels] have taken Aleppo. It’s a loss, for sure. But is this integral to Assad maintaining power? No. Is it integral to Iran’s core interests in Syria? No,” says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the London-based news website Amwaj.media. “I don’t see Iran rushing to Assad’s aid. Not because they don’t want to keep him in power ... but because they want him to better appreciate their role.”
Iran and its alliance of regional militias are seeking once again to defend the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as Sunni Islamist rebels make swift territorial gains in a surprise offensive.
But the array of forces, supported by Russian air power, that prevailed over anti-Assad insurgents and preserved his rule a decade ago during the first phase of Syria’s devastating civil war, is weaker today, and not focused on Syria.
Iran and its regional “Axis of Resistance” fighters, chief among them Lebanese Hezbollah, are all degraded and distracted after more than a year of war with Israel.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onWhat can Iran do to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad defeat newly energized rebel forces? Its anti-Israel “Axis of Resistance” has been overworked and diminished. Yet even as Iran searches for solutions, there are some suggestions that it is not panicking.
Syrian government troops melted away in the face of the offensive launched last week from the rebel-held northwest province of Idlib. Within days, Islamist groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was once affiliated with Al Qaeda, had captured Syria’s second city of Aleppo.
By Thursday, rebels had taken control of Hama, 80 miles to the south. HTS, designated a terrorist group by the United States, sent messages to Syrian minority groups to reassure them of freedom and protection, prompting Aleppo Christians to put up Christmas decorations.
Nevertheless, there has been consternation but not panic in Iran about the investment of billions of dollars over many years, both to defend Mr. Assad and to create the Axis, which aims to counter Israeli and American influence in the Mideast.
Iran-backed Shiite militias from Iraq reportedly have sent hundreds of fighters to Syria, to help defend an Axis ally that serves as a critical weapons route between Iran and Lebanon. Hezbollah is also trying to mobilize for Syria, but its leadership has been decimated and its units degraded by 14 months of escalating conflict with Israel.
That fight culminated in a ceasefire coming into effect Nov. 27 – the day the Syrian rebels launched their offensive.
“This whole thing is coming at the worst moment for Iran and the Axis, and I think also explains the timing on the side of the rebels,” to take advantage of the relative weakness of Mr. Assad’s allies, says Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran’s role in Syria at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“Compared to a decade ago, Iran has fewer resources to invest in the Axis. ... So I can see why they are quite concerned,” he says.
Two pivotal events have changed the safety net dynamic for Mr. Assad and for Iran, Mr. Azizi says. The first was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which diverted Moscow’s focus and prompted it to withdraw some troops and hand over some bases to the Syrian army even as it kept an air capability in the country.
The second was the October 2023 attack by Axis-member Hamas on Israel. That triggered Hezbollah’s first rocket strikes on Israel in solidarity, as well as attacks from Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Yemen, ostensibly to stop Israel’s onslaught in Gaza.
“Obviously everybody in the Axis started to get distracted, and focused on the Gaza front, especially those actors whose presence was significant in the Syrian war,” Mr. Azizi says.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei complained on X this week that the Sunni extremists were "good news for enemies" of Islam by drawing the world’s attention away from the “issue of Palestine.”
“The current moment [in Syria] shows how significant the Iranian and Iran-backed manpower was, because they were able to prevent further advances by the rebels. But when there is nobody on the ground over those areas, they [the rebels] come again,” says Mr. Azizi. “That’s the problem: Airpower alone can’t secure victory.”
To be sure, Israel has used airstrikes to kill several senior Iranian commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Qods Force, who were responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon.
“What is Iran capable of doing, and not capable of doing? Clearly its command structure in Syria is damaged,” says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the London-based news website Amwaj.media, which focuses on Iran, Iraq, and Arabian Peninsula countries.
Those networks, steeped in long-standing personal relationships, will take time to reestablish. But Iran can afford its military work in Syria, he says, and does not have an overall manpower problem, considering its past advisory role and the deployment of relatively few of its own troops.
“These are personal relationships that are hard to reconstitute,” says Mr. Shabani, noting for example Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike in April on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus.
General Zahedi was in charge of all the Levant and of funneling weapons to Lebanon and Syria. He was reportedly the only non-Lebanese person to sit on Hezbollah’s top Shura Council, while also exercising “veto power” over its subordinate military Jihad Council. His death triggered an unprecedented direct Iranian retaliation against Israel, with 300 missiles and drones.
“Many other, if not all, members of the Jihad Council are [also] dead. So they are all in a state of reconstituting these structures,” says Mr. Shabani, whose website first reported the significance of General Zahedi.
Nevertheless, Mr. Shabani explains why, practically and politically, Iran may not be more urgently coming to Mr. Assad’s aid.
“Do I believe [pro-Assad forces] can seize back all of Syria? No. They couldn’t even do that last year, or last month,” he says. “But is it enough to keep Assad in power? Pick up a map, and look at what Iran’s objectives are in Syria.”
Those objectives include ensuring cross-country routes for Iranian weapons to reach Lebanon and key destinations in Syria, including Damascus, areas close to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and Qusayr, where Hezbollah had a significant victory in 2012.
“[Rebels] have taken Aleppo. It’s a loss, for sure. But is this integral to Assad maintaining power? No. Is it integral to Iran’s core interests in Syria? No,” says Mr. Shabani. “I don’t see Iran rushing to Assad’s aid. Not because they don’t want to keep him in power … but because they want him to better appreciate their role.”
Four days after the rebel offensive erupted, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Damascus to reassure Mr. Assad. According to news reports, the two detailed the support that needs to be provided for Syria.
In a show of calm, Mr. Araghchi was later filmed eating at a fast-food restaurant in Damascus. But in a diplomatic push, he then flew to Ankara to meet his counterpart from Turkey, which has backed factions of the Syrian opposition.
Iranian media reported Monday that Iranian Qods Force Gen. Javad Ghaffari arrived in Damascus to lead Iranian “military advisers” and help the Syrian army battle the advancing rebels. He has often been lauded in Iran for safeguarding Aleppo in 2016, but earned the title “Butcher of Aleppo” by opponents of Iran who recall brutal tactics there.
In Parliament Dec. 1, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian called on Muslim nations to “intervene and not allow America and Israel to take advantage” in Syria. Yet when asked on state television the next day about the chances of a direct Iranian military engagement in Syria, Mr. Pezeshkian twice dodged the question, and noted instead his government’s diplomatic efforts.
It is not yet clear if several hundred Iran-backed fighters from Iraq have made it to Syria, as reported, or if orders to fight have been given to those members of the Axis already on the ground in Syria, who are mostly Shiite Afghans.
As rebels advanced Thursday, the HTS commander, Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, issued a request to Iraqi politicians to “do their duty” to prevent Iran-aligned militias from intervening “in what is happening in Syria.”
