Senator McCain is such a political icon, it’s hard to imagine him losing his Senate seat. After all, he was the GOP nominee for president in 2008. But the potential to lose in 2016 is there.
First, he could face a primary challenge from conservative Rep. Matt Salmon (R). Then, in the general, he could face a credible challenge from Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), who has announced she’s running. If McCain wins his primary, he’s probably safe. But if he loses the primary to Congressman Salmon, then the general election becomes more competitive.
Cook and Sabato call the race likely Republican. Rothenberg-Gonzales calls it lean Republican.
