What would it take for Gingrich, Santorum, or Paul to beat Romney?

Mitt Romney won big in Nevada's caucuses Saturday, bolstering what supporters say is his standing as 'most electable.' But it's months before the GOP nominating convention, and Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum aren't giving up the fight.

|
Steve Marcus/Reuters
Republican presidential candidate and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich speaks at a news conference after the Nevada caucus in Las Vegas, Nevada, February 4, 2012.

Clichés abound at this early point in any presidential race. “Never say never.” “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

And in the cold light of a Nevada desert morning, those seem apt even though Mitt Romney won that state’s nominating caucuses by a wide margin – his second big victory in a row following Florida just four days earlier – leaving his main rival Newt Gingrich to figure out a plausible comeback path.

Come convention time next August in Tampa, Fla., it’ll take 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. So far, Romney has 97 – just 8.5 percent of total. Still, other numbers gathered at the Huffington Post’s “Election Dashboard” web site, indicate strong standing and momentum for the former Massachusetts governor.

He’s won 94 endorsements from Republican governors, senators, and members of congress as well as "automatic delegates" – national committee members and state party chairmen. Gingrich has just 11. (Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have 3 each.)

Romney’s campaign has raised $57 million. Gingrich’s has raised $12.7 million – which is more than Santorum ($2.2 million), but less than Paul ($26 million). Gingrich’s independent super PAC may have outspent Romney’s by roughly three-to-one ($22 million to $7 million). But Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire chairman and CEO of the Las Vegas Sands hotel and casino, whose extended family has given $11 million to Gingrich’s super PAC, has quietly given the Romney camp assurances that he’d be backing the former Massachusetts governor if he wins the nomination.

Gingrich has more Twitter followers than Romney. But at this point, the Intrade prediction market gives the former House Speaker only a 4 percent chance of winning the nomination, compared to 87 percent for Romney. Gingrich’s campaign remains roughly $600,000 in debt, reports the Washington Post, and he failed to win a place on the ballot for Virginia’s Super Tuesday primary election.

But, again, it’s early days in the race. There could be new revelations or verbal gaffes – like Romney’s personal income tax history or his recent comment about not being concerned about the very poor.

Gingrich will keep hammering away at Romney. Speaking of Romney’s attack ads, Gingrich said Saturday night, "I had never before seen a person who I thought was a serious candidate for president be that fundamentally dishonest.”

Meanwhile, he’s laid out his plan to stay a viable candidate – what appears to be a southern strategy designed to close the delegate gap between him and Romney.

"Our goal is to get to Super Tuesday, which is much more favorable territory," Gingrich said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." Super Tuesday, which is March 6, features 10 state primaries and caucuses, including Gingrich’s home state of Georgia as well as Tennessee.

"By the time Texas is over, we'll be competitive in the final delegate count," he predicted. Texas holds its primary April 3. Between Super Tuesday and the Texas primary, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana will have held their primaries as well.

Santorum and Paul face an even steeper path to the nomination.

Paul’s strategy is to focus on caucus states, where his well-organized and enthusiastic following can do well.

“We have three or four caucus states that we believe our numbers are doing pretty good, so we have to just wait and see and continue to do exactly what we're doing,” Paul said on ABC’s “This Week” Sunday.

Santorum, who came in last in Nevada (after coming in third in South Carolina and Florida) and is way behind his competitors in campaign fund-raising, is focusing on Tuesday’s caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota.

"We think we can do exceptionally well," the former Pennsylvania senator said on Fox News Sunday. "We're going to show this race is moving in a very different direction."

That may be true, but at the moment the movement seems to be in Romney’s direction.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to What would it take for Gingrich, Santorum, or Paul to beat Romney?
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0205/What-would-it-take-for-Gingrich-Santorum-or-Paul-to-beat-Romney
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe