By switching to Vice President Kamala Harris as their presumptive nominee, Democrats have gotten a jolt of momentum and a flood of campaign donations.

They may also have shifted the political map.

When President Joe Biden still topped the ticket, his team was looking at a narrowing path to 270 Electoral College votes, with the entire campaign likely hinging on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – “blue wall” states with large populations of older, white, working-class voters.

But Ms. Harris, a multiracial woman two decades younger than Mr. Biden, is demonstrating far greater appeal among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, according to recent polling. And that’s putting fast-growing, diverse states like Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia – where Mr. Biden eked out victories in 2020 but had trailed former President Donald Trump throughout this cycle – squarely back in play. Even North Carolina, which narrowly backed Mr. Trump last time around, now looks like a target.

While Democrats are hardly discounting the importance of the electoral vote-rich Rust Belt, it’s clear Ms. Harris is pursuing an equally vigorous Sun Belt strategy. 

“Everything has changed,” says Jeremy Hughes, a Republican strategist who was Pacific regional political director for the 2020 Trump campaign. Up until a few weeks ago, Mr. Hughes had been so confident of a Trump victory in Nevada, for example, that he regarded that state as essentially off the table. Not anymore. “[Nevada] could decide who wins the election.”

Rebecca Noble/Reuters

A worker cuts yard signs in support of Kamala Harris' presidential campaign at the Gloo Factory in Tucson, Arizona, July 25, 2024.

The same goes for Georgia. “We’ve had tons of people reach out to figure out how they can get involved, where they can donate,” says Melissa Clink, a vice chair of the Democratic Party in Forsyth County, where more than 300 people showed up Sunday at an event where Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear was campaigning on Ms. Harris’ behalf.  “Locally, the energy has been electric.”

For her second campaign rally since taking over the ticket, Ms. Harris traveled to Atlanta Tuesday evening, where she spoke to a crowd of around 10,000 attendees in Georgia State University’s basketball arena, after appearances from rappers Quavo and Megan Thee Stallion. 

“The path to the White House runs right through this state,” Ms. Harris said at the start of her speech. “You all helped us win in 2020, and we’re going to do it again in 2024.”

Seven battleground states

The shifting map doesn’t mean there’s suddenly a new list of battlegrounds. Democratic and Republican strategists alike agree that the same seven states that decided the election in 2020 – where either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump won by 3 percentage points or less – are probably going to decide this one. 

If anything, the seven top battlegrounds appear more set now than before Ms. Harris became the presumptive nominee, when Republicans had begun speculating about flipping blue states like Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico, as President Biden’s candidacy faltered. Those dreams of a GOP landslide now look far less likely.

A new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday shows Ms. Harris has improved on Mr. Biden’s position in all seven swing states. In Nevada and Arizona, where Mr. Biden had been trailing Mr. Trump, Ms. Harris now leads by 2 points. Georgia, where Mr. Trump had also held a lead, is now tied. All of the states remain close, however, with only Michigan showing a Harris lead outside the margin of error. 

Rachel Wisniewski/Reuters

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer speaks at a rally with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (sitting behind her) in support of Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign in Ambler, Pennsylvania, July 29, 2024.

The current boost for Democrats may reflect a “Harris Honeymoon,” as Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio argues. It’s possible the map could narrow as Democratic enthusiasm wears off and Republican attacks take hold.

But a closer look at recent polls’ cross tabs, or survey data tables, suggests that there is a voter trade-off taking place – one that, for now, appears to be benefiting Democrats.

In New York Times/Siena surveys looking at Mr. Biden’s candidacy in June and then Ms. Harris’ candidacy in July, Ms. Harris improved on Mr. Biden by 10 points among voters under 30, 10 points among Black voters, and 12 points among Hispanic voters. She also gained 8 points among suburban voters. At the same time, Ms. Harris dropped among white voters without college degrees by 2 points. 

These types of shifts have an impact on the electoral map. Among the top battlegrounds, Georgia and North Carolina have among the country’s highest shares of Black voters (about one-third and one-quarter of the eligible voting population, respectively), while Arizona and Nevada have some of the highest shares of Latino voters, at 25 and 22%. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, on the other hand, have higher shares of white voters without college degrees, as well as significant suburban populations.

In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton lost the Electoral College after Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which had backed Democrats in presidential elections for decades, voted for Donald Trump. In 2020, Mr. Biden was able to “claw back” enough working-class white voters in to recapture those states, says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis and electoral projections newsletter run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Yet Mr. Biden’s success in these states, along with Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, was also buoyed by inroads in the suburbs – a trend that seems to be increasing with Ms. Harris at the top of the ticket. While Democrats may not be able to reassemble the same coalition of voters who put Barack Obama in the White House, they may not need to. 

“Turning back the clock to the Obama coalition doesn’t seem realistic because Democrats have lost working-class white voters who aren’t coming back,” says Mr. Kondik. “2024 is basically the third iteration of 2016 and 2020. I’m expecting similar voting patterns, maybe with changes at the margins.”

The “blue wall”

While Ms. Harris may do well in the Sun Belt, Mr. Kondik says he’d be “very surprised” if she ends up with an Electoral College victory that doesn’t include Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin – in part because of simple math. 

Ronda Churchill/Reuters

Former President Donald Trump's running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, holds a rally in Henderson, Nevada, July 30, 2024.

The three Rust Belt swing states have 44 electoral votes between them, while the three Sun Belt states (not including North Carolina) have 33. If Ms. Harris wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, but loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, she wouldn’t get to the winning number of 270 Electoral College votes. The election would be a 269-269 tie.

“In terms of how far our dollar goes to winning this election, our answer is unequivocally Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,” says Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, a Democrat-aligned super PAC that announced a $140 million paid media program in those three states earlier this year. The week Mr. Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Ms. Harris, Mr. Dennis’ group announced a $20 million ad buy featuring voters from the same three states. “There is no change in the Electoral College map that is conceivable to me that we would shift focus away from these states.”

Still, Mr. Dennis and other Democrats make the point that Ms. Harris’ competitive position in other swing states will help Democrats’ chances in November, even if those states ultimately end up voting for Mr. Trump, because it will force the Trump campaign to spend money there. Case in point: The Trump campaign on Wednesday was reportedly placing new ad spending in North Carolina, where Mr. Trump has been ahead in the polls, and where Ms. Harris has already begun running ads.

“If [Harris] can force Donald Trump to go defend Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, that means far less resources get poured by the Trump campaign into the upper Midwest,” says Richard Czuba, a nonpartisan pollster in Michigan. “The best defense is a great offense. If she can run offense in those states, it certainly helps them win the northern wall.” 

Within that “northern wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Mr. Czuba’s own polling suggests that Ms. Harris has already improved on Mr. Biden’s numbers in Michigan. In January, Mr. Czuba’s poll had Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump by 8 points there whereas his poll from last week found Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump tied. But those topline numbers weren’t Mr. Czuba’s biggest takeaway. He says he was “stunned” when he looked at the poll’s “motivation to vote” figures.  

“Kamala Harris has jacked the motivation of Democratic voters through the roof in Michigan,” says Mr. Czuba, specifically young voters, Black voters, and longtime Democrats. The numbers look similar to what Mr. Czuba saw before the 2020 and 2022 elections, when Democrats performed well statewide.

After Ms. Harris’ rally in Atlanta, Ms. Clink texted her big takeaway: “Georgia isn’t going back.” 

The assassinations of a senior Hezbollah leader Tuesday in Beirut, for which Israel immediately claimed responsibility, and of Hamas’ political leader early Wednesday in Tehran, on which Israel has remained silent, sent shock waves through the region with two profound consequences.

First, the killings of two of Israel’s foes have made a cease-fire anytime soon in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza less likely. Second, they have increased the chances that a military response by Iran and its regional “Axis of Resistance” allies could escalate into an all-out regional war that would involve the United States.

The killing overnight of Ismail Haniyeh, the Qatar-based Hamas leader who was engaged in Gaza peace talks and was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, was an embarrassment for Iran. On Wednesday the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed a “severe punishment” of Israel in response.

That assassination came just hours after Fouad Shukur, a senior adviser to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was killed by a drone strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Israel said it targeted the commander who ordered a rocket attack Saturday that killed a dozen young people in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

“Israel’s two assassinations, regardless of the reason behind them, were done in [a] deliberately provocative manner – designed to invite escalatory retaliation,” wrote Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and professor at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.

“Unable or unwilling to restrain Israel, US is sleepwalking into a larger war that it doesn’t want,” Professor Nasr wrote on X. “It has put itself in the crazy position of hoping for restraint in Beirut and Tehran.”

Asked Wednesday about the Tehran assassination and its impact on diplomacy, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the killing was “something we were not aware of or involved in,” The Associated Press reported. “But I can tell you that the imperative of getting a cease-fire, the importance that that has for everyone, remains.”

Likewise, the AP quoted Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin as saying he still had hopes for a diplomatic solution on the Israeli-Lebanon border. “I don’t think that war is inevitable,” he said.

Oct. 7, and after

Conflict has spread across the Middle East since militants of Iran-backed Hamas crossed from Gaza into southern Israel last Oct. 7, killing some 1,200 people and taking 250 hostage. Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas by invading Gaza has cost nearly 40,000 Palestinian lives.

That war has pulled in members of Iran’s regional alliance, especially the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, which has engaged in calibrated escalations of fire with Israel since Oct. 8. The fighting has forced 60,000 Israelis and 90,000 Lebanese to evacuate from border areas.

Alkis Konstantinidis/Reuters

A man watches the news on multiple TV screens, most of them announcing the killing in Tehran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, in Istanbul July 31, 2024.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, too, have launched missiles and drones repeatedly at Israel and international shipping in solidarity with Hamas, including one drone that struck Tel Aviv July 19 and drew an Israeli airstrike a day later on the Yemeni port city of Al Hudaydah.

But despite the escalatory moves, an all-out conflict between Israel and Iran and its allies – which would inevitably draw in the U.S., as Israel’s main backer – is not a foregone conclusion. For months, Iran and Hezbollah have made clear their desire to avoid such a significant conflict.

The assassination in Tehran “is unlikely to drag Iran into a wider war. Iranian leaders understand that Israel is achieving tactical wins in the midst of a strategic defeat,” wrote Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an Iran analyst and CEO of Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, an economic think tank.

“Israel is making rash and escalatory moves because it is increasingly isolated, divided, and weak,” Mr. Batmanghelidj wrote on X.

New president’s challenge

Still, Iran’s reform-leaning new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in Tuesday at the event Mr. Haniyeh attended, started his tenure by chastising Israel for killing the Hamas leader and vowing a strong Iranian response.

The last time Iran deemed that Israel had crossed a red line – by assassinating a top Revolutionary Guard commander at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, in April – it sent a wave of more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel. It was the first such launch from Iranian soil.

Mr. Haniyeh was deemed a pragmatist in the organization trying to convince Hamas’ military leadership in Gaza, led by Yahya Sinwar, to agree to a cease-fire. His assassination is only the latest embarrassing counterintelligence failure by Iran at the hands of Israel’s Mossad spy agency.

For the past decade and longer, the assassinations of more than half a dozen top Iranian nuclear scientists – sometimes in spectacular fashion – and a missile specialist have been widely attributed to Israel. Israeli agents also spirited away a trove of historical nuclear documents from a secret storage site in Tehran.

At a press conference in Tehran Wednesday, Hamas’ deputy chief in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, cited witnesses who had been with Mr. Haniyeh in Iran as saying the missile that killed him struck him “directly.”

Lebanon and Iran, Mr. Hayya said, “will never leave this unanswered.”

Taylor Luck contributed to this report from Amman, Jordan.

When Simone Biles stepped onto the mat for the floor exercise at the gymnastics team final in Paris, Bercy Arena erupted.

“There’s only one gymnast left. Who could it be?” the announcer said, teasing the crowd. She told the fans that Ms. Biles is the most decorated gymnast in history. Could she get another medal?

The answer came quickly, as the U.S. phenom completed the hardest tumbling pass in the world, one where she soars almost 12 feet in the air. After her routine, she blew the crowd a kiss – and the competition away. The U.S. women’s team won the gold medal.

It’s significant that this celebration of powerful female athletes is happening in Paris. Over a century ago, it was here that women were first allowed to compete in the Games. Back in 1900, only 22 out of about 1,000 athletes were women. Today, the 2024 Olympics is the first in which the number of male and female athletes is roughly equal. Besides Ms. Biles, top female competitors include swimmer Katie Ledecky and track-and-field powerhouse Sha’Carri Richardson.

These Games are happening at a time when women’s sports are seeing an increase in viewership and ticket sales. Though not selected for Team USA, Caitlin Clark helped attract record crowds to the NCAA basketball tournament this spring – and then to her Women’s National Basketball Association games. At the Olympics, Ms. Biles is often the draw, with opening weekend Nielsen and Adobe Analytics ratings showing a bump – to 41.5 million viewers – on the Sunday the U.S. women’s gymnastics team first competed. That was up from about 32 million the day before. 

“Women’s sports is booming,” said Crystal Dunn, a veteran member of Team USA’s women’s soccer team, at a media event in the spring. “I think if you’re a female athlete, you’re not surprised. We’re sitting back and we’re kind of like, ‘Yeah, we’ve been telling y’all to invest in women’s [sports].’” 

Esa Alexander/Reuters

Laury Perez of France is in action during the 2024 Paris Olympics’ BMX freestyle competition, July 31, 2024.

Earlier this year, a survey of more than 14,000 people in seven countries, including the United States, showed global growth in fan interest in women’s sports. Soccer and tennis are the most popular outside of the U.S., where women’s basketball leads. Compared with last year, a quarter to a third of women’s sports fans are watching more in 2024. That includes men, whose watching is up 30% over the previous year.

The increased popularity can be seen in fandom, sponsorships, media rights, ticket sales, and paraphernalia. Female Olympians say that they have felt the surge in appreciation for women’s sports and have enjoyed riding the wave. Their lived experiences have helped interest percolate over the years.

“I’ve actually been having a dream where artistic swimming goes on the same route as women’s basketball,” said Daniella Ramirez, a member of Team USA’s artistic swimming (formerly synchronized swimming) team, while attending the spring media event.

Greg Shamus/Reuters

WNBA player A'Ja Wilson (right) of Team USA competes against Maki Takada of Japan at the 2024 Olympics, July 29.

Why Allyson Felix built an Olympic nursery

A factor in the recent growth is women helping other women. Allyson Felix, a track-and-field star with 11 Olympic medals to her name, brought the first-ever Olympic nursery to the athletes village, in partnership with Pampers. She told NBC Olympics that her goal was to “support athletes who are mothers.” 

The mother of two – and most decorated woman in track and field – had to compete without a nursery in Tokyo. She picked up two medals, but described the experience of trying to care for her daughter so far from home, and of simultaneously competing on the Olympic stage, as “very challenging.” Ms. Felix wanted to offer other athlete moms a sense of normalcy.

“There are many of us who feel like, when we leave the game we want to have helped push it and make it better than when we found it,” says Ms. Dunn, who has been a member of the U.S. national soccer team since 2012. She credits more investment in the sport and federations committing more resources with helping women’s sports grow and thrive.

What hurdles do women athletes face?

For all their strides, women still work to overcome misperceptions about their physical abilities – and lack of access to high-level coaching jobs. One of Ms. Ledecky’s top events, the 1,500-meter freestyle, only became a women’s event at the Olympics as of 2021 in Tokyo. Men had been competing in the 1,500 since 1904. Ms. Ledecky won gold Wednesday in that event, while also breaking her own Olympic record. She finished 10 seconds ahead of the silver medalist.

Women also face religious barriers. In France, for example, Muslim women on the host country’s Olympic team are not allowed to wear hijabs. France’s explanation is that athletes are considered civil servants and are required to present themselves as secular and neutral. But the ban sparked an international outcry from Muslim athletes, including U.S. fencer Ibtihaj Muhammad and Australian boxer Tina Rahimi. Critics say barring women from wearing the hijab appears to violate the Olympic Charter’s mandate to respect religious rights.

Even with the hurdles, there are signs the gains in popularity will continue. Parity, one of the sponsors of the viewership survey, describes itself as a “sports marketing and sponsorship platform.” It partners with almost 1,100 female athletes, including 260 female Olympians and Paralympians globally, and pairs them with companies. CEO Leela Srinivasan credits a lot of the rising interest to increased availability on media platforms.

“There are so many more options for where you can watch sports,” she says. “If you asked three or four years ago what percentage of media coverage share did women’s sports have, the answer was about 4%. But the last time they gauged it last year, that number had gone up to 15%.” 

Luisa Gonzalez/Reuters

Lindsey Horan (center, No. 10) celebrates a U.S. goal against Germany with Mallory Swanson during the 2024 Olympics, July 28, 2024.

Ms. Srinivasan says that women popularize sports via social media by building brands and engaging with fans. “Many people watch women’s sports because of the quality that, once you get the exposure, you want to see more of it.”

Why rugby’s Ilona Maher is bigger on social media than Katie Ledecky

The U.S. women’s rugby sevens team won its first-ever Olympic medal this week – a bronze. It was the country’s first rugby medal in a century. Player Ilona Maher is one of the athletes who has used Instagram and TikTok accounts to help build her own brand and get the word out about her sport. With nearly 4 million followers, she has more reach than other U.S. Olympians, including Ms. Ledecky. 

“I’m a female athlete in a sport that’s not very big, especially in America. It’s not a money-making sport. ... I want to make sports a career and I don’t think many women can think that way,” she has said, according to The Guardian. 

Current and former professional athletes have invested big money in women’s sports. Retired tennis legend Billie Jean King partnered with Mark Walter, an owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, to start the Professional Women’s Hockey League. Former WNBA champion Sue Bird this year became part owner of the Seattle Storm, the team she played 19 seasons for. And the NBA’s Kevin Durant recently purchased a share of the National Women’s Soccer League Gotham FC.

By some accounts, the representation across platforms, such as TV, is what fuels future generations of athletes. Gabby Thomas, a two-time Olympic medalist in track and field, says that she was inspired by female runners.

“I grew up watching incredible women running. And other than Usain Bolt, the majority of my focus was on watching Allyson Felix, Sanya Richards-Ross, and Carmelita Jeter, and watching these powerhouse women do an amazing job on the track. And I could see myself in that position, and that’s what drew me to [the sport],” Ms. Thomas said at the spring media event.

Ms. Srinivasan, the Parity CEO, believes the momentum will continue to grow because of the infrastructure in place now. 

“It’s such an exciting time for anyone who follows women’s sports,” she says, adding that there are daily newsworthy developments happening. 

“It’s really hard to keep up,” she says. “We spend all day, every day, thinking about women’s sports.”

How do athletes cope with the pressure of competition? Find out more: They stepped away for mental health. Their comebacks are powering the Olympics.

Ever wonder how Olympic basketball teams are chosen? Read our coverage here.

Jeff Amy/AP/File

Nearly 150 hospitals have closed since 2010, many of them privately run and in the South. The Southwest Georgia Regional Medical Center in Cuthbert, Georgia, closed in 2020. But the Georgia Senate passed a bill March 14, 2024, letting the hospital reopen without a state permit.

Not long ago, news that Jenkins County Medical Center would close in this former cotton crossroads suggested a tough truth: that people and jobs were disappearing, leaving many poor and uninsured people in another struggling Southern town. 

The Great Recession of 2007-2009 had already eliminated all 1,700 manufacturing jobs in this Georgia county of just 8,000 people. In the years since that recession, nearly 150 hospitals have closed in rural towns across the United States, most in the South.

But when this medical center’s closing was announced in 2017, Millen’s residents and political leaders didn’t bow to circumstance.

“We had no choice but to crawl our way out of it,” says King Rocker, the town’s Republican mayor. 

Economic troubles have impelled many Southern conservatives, like Mayor Rocker, to consider fresh approaches to the role that government plays in health care. Many of them, ever so slowly, have begun opening toward the idea that providing publicly funded basic health care may be vital to the overall well-being of a community.

Or as Republican pollster Brent Buchanan puts it, they see an emerging benefit from “investing in the infrastructure of people,” at a time when many conservative voters are pressed by health insurance costs.

A Georgia hospital’s shift from private to public 

In the end, Millen’s community hospital was saved partly by being taken out of private management – which often closes less-profitable clinics and hospitals – and placed in the hands of a county hospital authority. Jobs trickled back. 

Such a shift is a tricky proposition for the politics of the rural South, where many people, rich and poor alike, are skeptical of  government imposition on the local economy. 

One sign of how attitudes are shifting, however, is that some states are reconsidering their long-standing refusal to expand Medicaid, the federal-state insurance program for low-income or disabled people.

The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, known colloquially as “Obamacare,” provided new federal funds for states to expand eligibility in their Medicaid programs. 

Charles Dharapak/AP/File

President Barack Obama is applauded after signing the 2010 Affordable Care Act into law at the White House. While “Obamacare” has long polled poorly among white Republicans in the South, a growing number of Americans of all races now view the ACA favorably.

Most states – except for 10 mostly Southern ones – participate. One result is higher costs for U.S. taxpayers. But Medicaid expansion has successfully reduced uninsured rates in rural areas, improved access to care for low-income people, and lowered uncompensated care costs for hospitals and clinics.

Lawmakers here in Georgia, as well as in Mississippi and Alabama, are reconsidering their opposition amid pleas from some in the health care industry. They have also been moved by growing support from an aging electorate concerned about health care costs.

“Republican primary voters are willing to make that investment because they’re now the ones most likely to benefit from expansion within the Southern states, specifically,” says Mr. Buchanan.

Some 80% of Georgians who make between $25,000 and $50,000 a year support expansion, according to a University of Georgia poll in January. Similarly, 55% of GOP primary voters in Mississippi said in one February poll that they would support closing coverage gaps.

The numbers are compelling. Expanding Medicaid, in fact, could allow more than 600,000 low-income, uninsured people in those three states alone to gain coverage, experts and industry-watchers say.

“Republican legislators in some states are certainly becoming more open to the idea of not leaving that [federal] money on the table anymore,” says University of Georgia pollster Trey Hood. “Maybe some of it is an overture to the working class.”

Rogelio V. Solis/AP

Mississippi state Sen. Bradford Blackmon, a Democrat, listens to a discussion of the state Medicaid expansion plan during a public joint House-Senate Medicaid meeting at the state Capitol, April 23, 2024, in Jackson.

Private hospitals tilt away from Medicaid

The Medicaid issue also intersects with the question of hospital closings and the growing privatization of U.S. hospitals, many of which began with nonprofit missions by churches, charity groups, or local municipalities. 

Even as public reliance on Medicaid has been rising, public-turned-private hospitals now admit 15% fewer Medicaid patients than they once did, according to a 2023 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research study. Privately run hospitals may be more efficient, but they reduce access and quality of care for the most vulnerable Americans.

Medicaid is not a panacea for the struggle of rural hospitals. But in Georgia, a potential $1.2 billion influx under expansion would cut costly indigent care.

When North Carolina, which has a Republican legislature and a Democratic governor, accepted Medicaid expansion last year, more than 300,000 people in the state signed up.

Brynn Anderson/AP/File

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp listens to a question during a news conference at the state Capitol in Atlanta. Governor Kemp signed a bill in April that cut regulations on local hospitals to stanch the closings, but he stopped short of endorsing Medicaid expansion.

Health insurance is an amenity that can boost economic development, but many Republicans worry about the costs to taxpayers. 

“Part of this is distrust,” says Charles Bullock III, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, in Athens. “The idea that, yes, [Medicaid expansion] is a great deal on the front end with the feds picking up nearly all the costs. But ... if they do pull the football away, it turns into a losing-type situation.”

And Republicans traditionally don’t want to be associated with tax-supported entitlement programs – especially ones with roots in Washington. 

“[Politicians in these states] say, ‘We don’t need to expand Medicaid – we take care of our poor,’” says Nancy Nielsen, senior dean for health policy at the University at Buffalo and former director of the American Medical Association. 

Create alternatives or pivot toward Medicaid?

A cautionary tale for them is Indiana. One of the first Republican-led states to expand Medicaid, the Hoosier State blamed forecasting errors and ballooning long-term care costs for a $1 billion Medicaid shortfall in 2023.

Georgia has been trying alternatives. A homegrown program has enrolled just a few thousand people, with an 80-hour-a-month work or volunteer requirement to weed out fraud.

On April 19, Gov. Brian Kemp signed a bill that cut regulations on local hospitals to stem the closings. He stopped short of endorsing Medicaid expansion. But the new law creates a commission to examine issues facing uninsured Georgians. 

Georgia Sen. Matt Brass, a Republican, switched to “yes” in a recent committee vote on Medicaid expansion. He worries about employees at his business who need more health care access. “Sometimes, roofs leak,” he said during testimony, referring to how unexpected costs can undermine family budgets. The measure failed by a 7-7 committee vote.

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves has opposed Medicaid expansion. But the state’s new House speaker, Republican Jason White, has prioritized it.

“Republican strategists are looking at this and saying, ‘Why do we have to play defense on the health care issue when it is so popular?’” says Professor Bullock.

In bolstering hospitals, Medicaid expansion could also boost local health care jobs. 

“It’s like a negotiation of values and economic interests,’’ says Luke Shaefer, a public policy expert at the University of Michigan, in Ann Arbor. “Where can we land?”  

Luc Gnago/Reuters

CFA is the currency of several West African countries. A movement against the CFA has been gathering new momentum.

During the morning rush hour, people and cars whiz past Birahim Diallo’s rickety wooden coffee stand. One after another, customers hand him coins in exchange for a small cup of a dark, spiced coffee called Café Touba. But each time he opens his hand to receive a payment, Mr. Diallo feels a flicker of anger. 

“When I see the CFA, I see my colonizer,” says Mr. Diallo. That’s a reference to Senegal’s currency, the Financial Community of Africa franc, which is commonly known by its French acronym, CFA. 

Originally created by the French colonial government in the mid-1940s, the CFA is today the currency of 14 countries in central and western Africa. That history makes it a perennial lightning rod for debates about France’s role in its former colonies on the continent. 

This money feels like “it’s not mine, it’s from another country,” says Mr. Diallo, swirling spices and coffee grounds in a metal teapot over a portable gas stove. 

Many other Senegalese feel the same. Recently, the movement against the CFA has been gathering new momentum here and across the region, spurred by leaders who see it as a vestige of colonialism that stifles their economies. 

“Currency is a question of sovereignty,” explained Senegal’s new Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko earlier this year. 

But the debate is far from over. The CFA also still has many supporters in the region, who argue the sentiment against it is emotionally charged and vague on reasonable alternatives. 

“Your wallet in someone else’s pocket”

The appeals to leave the CFA are not new. They began decades ago, during Africa’s independence wave.

Guinea adopted its own currency in 1960, shortly after its independence, as did both Madagascar and Mauritania in the early 1970s. Those departures were motivated in part by what the currency symbolized. It was a constant, always visible sign of France’s continued economic and social influence in its colonies, a relationship often called “Francafrique.” 

Today, eight African countries use the West African CFA franc as their official currency, and six others use the Central African CFA. Both are pegged to the euro, which ensures a level of financial stability in countries where it is used. But critics note that this also potentially limits the countries’ economic growth because they cannot devalue the currency to make the prices of their goods more competitive internationally, as is done in countries like China. 

This lack of control creates disadvantages for African governments when negotiating contracts to extract natural resources like oil or gold, says Senegalese economist Demba Moussa Dembele, director of the Forum for African Alternatives, a research organization based in Dakar. 

Thibault Camus/AP

French President Emmanuel Macron (right) welcomes Senegal's President Bassirou Diomaye Faye before a working lunch in Paris on June 20, 2024.

Echoing that sentiment, Senegalese singer Tièmoko Koné argues, “whoever controls the currency of a country controls its economy.”

In 2018, Mr. Koné, who is better known by his stage name Jah Moko Family, was one of 10 African musicians who wrote and performed a soulful, rap-infused ballad called  “7 minutes contre le CFA” – 7 minutes against the CFA – detailing reasons that African countries should leave the currency. 

Their arguments were partly economic. “Imagine that your wallet is someone else’s pocket,” goes one verse. “Break the chains of this economic slavery,” demands another. 

But the song also speaks to the emotional charge of the CFA, one of the most visible symbols of the relationship between France and its former colonies, which remains in many ways deeply unbalanced.“The young generation of the mother continent will no longer be witness to the assassination of our dignity,” the song’s opening explains. 

“It’s not that we hate the French or that we hate France,” says Mr. Koné, who is originally from Mali. “It’s just [that] we want balanced, healthy relations between France and Africa.”

However, calls to leave the CFA zone do tend to go hand in hand with anti-French and anti-Western sentiment in region. Between 2021 and 2023, military governments came to power through coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These new governments pledged greater independence from the West, and booted the French troops stationed in their countries. Then, late last year, they began discussing abandoning the CFA and starting their own regional currency. 

“There is no longer any question of our countries being the cash cows of France,” said Nigerien military leader Abdourahamane Tiani in February. “France has robbed us for more than 107 years. [A new] currency is a way out of this colonization.” 

Meanwhile, Senegal’s new president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, was elected in March in part on his promise to rid Senegal of outside manipulation – including of the country’s economy. He and his prime minister, Mr. Sonko, have discussed either reforming the CFA or leaving it entirely. 

A question of stability 

Still, it remains to be seen if these countries will take tangible steps to boot the CFA. And many in the region – including prominent leaders like Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara – are against the move. 

Back at Mr. Diallo’s coffee stand, repeat customer Ugochukwi Udensi sips his Café Touba as he explains why he doesn’t want Senegal to stop using the CFA.

“The CFA is stable,” he says, using the common colloquial pronunciation, “cefa.”  

A Nigerian immigrant, Mr. Udensi knows well the value of that stability. In the past year, his home country has plunged into an economic crisis, with inflation now hovering at 34 percent. A similar situation would be very unlikely in countries using the CFA because its peg to the euro makes it more resilient to inflation.

Mr. Udensi reaches into the pocket of his jeans and pulls out two wrinkly, sky-blue 2000 CFA notes, which together are worth just under $7. When he sends that amount home, it can sustain his mother for a week or two, he says. “This is a lot of money in Nigeria.” 

Their bikes skidded and slipped, some fell in muddy puddles, and the Seine’s current threatened to push them off course. But as Wednesday’s triathletes looped around Paris in their final run, they were just happy to be competing.

The day before, organizers’ worst fears were realized when, after two days of heavy rainfall over the weekend, tests came back showing pollution levels in the Seine above the legal threshold. At 4 a.m. on Tuesday, after eating breakfast and getting dressed, athletes were told that their event had been postponed.

“The [athletes] went back to sleep, even if it was difficult since they had already prepared for the race,” Benjamin Maze, the French Triathlon Federation technical director, told reporters on Tuesday. “They’re obviously disappointed and angry. We have to deal with these emotions.”

On Wednesday, bacteria levels in the Seine were deemed satisfactory, and despite rain overnight that left the streets slick, the women’s and men’s races were allowed to proceed. But Tuesday’s fiasco is a reminder of how reliant Olympic triathletes are on the weather. It also raises questions about organizers’ insistence on holding the swimming portion of the event in a body of water that has not been swimmable for 100 years.

“There is a pride in showing off Paris and French history, and the Olympics were the time to do that,” says Pierre Bréchon, professor emeritus of political science at Sciences Po Grenoble. “I think organizers wanted the Paris Olympics to be one of grandiose innovation, even if that meant taking a few risks.”

How much did Paris spend to clean up the Seine?

The city of Paris has poured €1.4 billion ($1.5 billion) into cleaning up the Seine since it was named the host of the 2024 Olympics, building a megabasin near the Austerlitz train station to filter wastewater before it ends up in the river. But as recently as July 17, when Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo took a dip in the river to prove its cleanliness, there have been questions about whether it would be safe to swim in.

Benoit Tessier/Reuters

Cassandre Beaugrand (left) of France won the gold medal for the women’s triathlon in front of a thrilled home crowd during the Paris Olympics July 31, 2024.

Wednesday’s event went off without a hitch, with France’s Cassandre Beaugrand winning gold in front of a thrilled home crowd and Alex Yee of Great Britain topping the podium for the men. But there is no guarantee that hygiene levels will remain stable throughout the Olympic Games. The mixed relay triathlon is Aug. 5, and the 10-kilometer (6.2-mile) open-water marathon will take place on Aug. 8 and 9. Despite the filtering systems in place, much will depend on the weather. The city takes water samples every day, but it takes 48 hours for bacteria to show up.

The situation has invariably angered some athletes who, on Tuesday, risked having the swimming portion removed from their race. That would have meant a run, bike, run competition, changing the optics of who was at an advantage. The plan B for the marathon swim could see the event take place at the Vaires-sur-Marne Nautical Stadium, where the canoe and rowing events are being held.

So why take such a risk when so much hinges on the weather? Members of Paris City Hall were visibly relieved during a press conference on Wednesday after the triathlon had successfully finished, but they say they were always fairly certain it was going to work out.

Vadim Ghirda/AP

Britain’s Alex Yee celebrates after winning the gold medal for the men's individual triathlon at the 2024 Summer Olympics July 31, in Paris.

“We were not worried because as soon as we decided to take the gamble, we started putting a concrete plan in place,” says Antoine Guillou, deputy mayor of Paris, who is in charge of waste reduction and management. He says the city has spent eight years on its Plan Baignade, a project to make the Seine swimmable. “That’s why we were so confident. We knew that if bacteria levels went up, they would eventually come back down.” 

If the French weren’t known as risk-takers before, they could make a name for themselves now. President Emmanuel Macron held snap legislative elections just one month before the Olympic Games, which have left the country with a hung Parliament and a caretaker government. And the Paris Olympics became the first in history to hold an open-air opening ceremony, creating a massive and costly security effort.

So, how was the water? 

While the rain-drenched opening ceremony may have threatened to dampen the Olympic spirit, it was no match for Paris’ enthusiasm for the Games. Wednesday’s triathlon – which saw athletes swimming down Paris’ most iconic waterway, and biking and running alongside the city’s most famous monuments – will, in the end, go down in the history books. Tuesday’s postponement will likely become just an asterisk.

Still, one important question remains. What did the water in the Seine taste like on race day?

“I think I can grab you a cup,” U.S. triathlete Taylor Knibb told the media after a grueling two-hour race, “if you want to taste it.”

How do athletes cope with the pressure of competition? Find out more: They stepped away for mental health. Their comebacks are powering the Olympics.

AP

A young man performs a stunt on his bicycle in Baghdad, Iraq.

Sitting at the heart of the Middle East – where ancient hatreds are again driving war across the region – Iraq is taking an extraordinary step to quell such hatred. In an agreement with the United Nations in July, it formally decided to conduct a population census without asking Iraqis to identify themselves by religious sect or ethnicity – “to avoid any division within the society,” the government stated.

The move was endorsed by Iraq’s highest court earlier this year. It reflects a rising sentiment among Iraqis to be treated as individual citizens after decades of violent conflicts driven by ethnic and sectarian stigmas.

A survey of Iraqis in 2022 found that fewer than a third feel they experience social and economic equality. In 2019, mass youth-led protests took aim at Iraq’s democratic power structure in which top positions are divvied out to Sunnis, Shiites, or Kurds, creating an inherently corrupt system of patronage. “Yazidis, Sunnis, Christians, we are all here to just be real Iraqis and support each other for freedom and for a good life,” said one protester.

The coming population census, which starts Nov. 20, will be the first nationwide count since the 1980s. The long delay is a result of wars, political differences, and the COVID-19 pandemic. A pilot census took place in May in the Kurdistan region and saw a 98% participation rate.

The census will focus mainly on collecting data to enhance the economy and ensure a fair distribution of government resources. Yet by not dividing people by personal identity, it also supports Iraqis who see citizenship based on broad ideals. The words equal and equality are mentioned eight times in the 2005 constitution.

Societies are best organized around an identity of civic rights based on the view of each individual being capable of self-rule, says scholar Francis Fukuyama. “Unless we can work our way back to more universal understandings of human dignity, we will doom ourselves to continuing conflict,” he wrote in his book “Identity.”

Many Iraqis are looking forward to a census-taker showing up at their door. “It is in everyone’s interest to be counted and not to erode anyone’s rights, as in the past,” Zaki Niyaz, a resident of Kirkuk, told Rudaw Media Network.

Wars may still be raging around Iraq in November. But the hatred that drives them may have started to wane.