2023
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Monitor Daily Podcast

August 24, 2023
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TODAY’S INTRO

The spirit of Little Rock

Ken Makin
Cultural commentator

Little Rock, Arkansas, has long had a civil rights background, with legends of desegregation such as the Little Rock Nine forever etched in the memory of the United States.

As the education system in Arkansas once again draws the nation’s attention, I can’t help but think about the capital city’s onomatology.

The “Little Rock” is a survey marker, honoring its reputation as an indicator of the “lay of the land,” with a history dating back to the early 1800s. Even though the original landmark has eroded, it is still memorialized with a bronze plaque and recognized by the National Register of Historic Places.

That particular history is ironic, considering the Arkansas Education Department’s efforts to discredit an Advanced Placement African American Studies course, saying the class won’t count toward graduation. In true Little Rock fashion, six schools are moving ahead with the class in spite of the state board’s disapproval.

Where the physical Little Rock has worn down, the same cannot be said for the members of the Little Rock Nine, who are still fighting many years later. Elizabeth Eckford, a woman who is literally the picture of desegregation in Arkansas, gave a name to the lifelong specter of racism in her city and country. Recent events in Arkansas are part of age-old efforts to create a “boogeyman,” she told Essence magazine.

On Fox News, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders said AP African American Studies pushes a “leftist agenda teaching our kids to hate America and hate one another.”

In that view, Ms. Eckford sees “attempts to erase history.” 

Attacks on critical race theory and classic folk songs of protest for racial equality, such as “Fables of Faubus,” are not mere foibles, but are reflections of systems that don’t value Black people or African history. At once, these regiments are the sediment in this country’s foundation, and the waves crashing against the little rocks of our fragile history. What looks like merely a temporary riptide to some is a timeless battleground for others – a challenge to see which ideas will erode first.

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Wagner’s finale? Prigozhin death marks Russian shift.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was the latest Kremlin irritant to be neutralized in suspect circumstances. His death in a plane crash likely means the end of Russia’s use of mercenaries in its foreign policy.

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Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had many enemies, and Russian state media Thursday were full of speculation about a possible Ukrainian or Western hand in the deadly crash of the plane he was on Wednesday. But it seems likely that the Russian private warlord who staged an open, if short-lived, coup against the Russian military establishment was living on borrowed time.

Though Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion was quashed, and he and a core of his men banished to Belarus, they remained in the headlines. There was likely a lot of murky, unfinished business between the mercenary leader and the Kremlin.

His death most probably spells the end of the Kremlin’s previous reliance on freelance military groups, especially in Africa, in favor of direct state control. But there is surprise and confusion among Russian analysts over Mr. Prigozhin’s dramatic demise, exactly two months after his abortive uprising.

“The main likelihood is that [Mr. Prigozhin’s assassination] was an operation of Russian [security forces],” former Kremlin speechwriter-turned-critic Abbas Gallyamov said Thursday. “But on the other hand, Prigozhin had a lot of projects on the go, in Africa, Belarus, Syria. It’s hard to believe that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin would risk all this. It’s like shooting himself in the foot. But it does seem that’s what happened.”

Wagner’s finale? Prigozhin death marks Russian shift.

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Anastasia Barashkova/Reuters
A fighter of the Wagner private mercenary group visits a makeshift memorial for Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in St. Petersburg, Russia, Aug. 24, 2023.

The plane crash that killed Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and at least two of his top lieutenants on Wednesday was clearly no accident.

Mr. Prigozhin had many enemies, and Russian state media Thursday were full of speculation about a possible Ukrainian or Western hand in his demise. But it seems likely that the Russian private warlord who staged an open, if short-lived, coup against the Russian military establishment was living on borrowed time.

Though Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion was quashed, and he and a core of his men banished to Belarus, they remained in the headlines. There was likely a lot of murky, unfinished business between the mercenary leader and the Kremlin.

His death most probably spells the end of the Kremlin’s reliance on freelance military groups, especially in Africa, in favor of direct state control. Earlier this week Mr. Prigozhin issued a militant video manifesto, purportedly shot in Africa, proclaiming that the Wagner force would be actively fighting to make Africa “more free” in the interests of Russia. The prospect of a reviving Wagner is something that would have focused minds in many quarters.

But there is surprise and confusion among Russian analysts over Mr. Prigozhin’s dramatic demise, exactly two months after his abortive uprising.

“The main likelihood is that [Mr. Prigozhin’s assassination] was an operation of Russian siloviki [security forces],” former Kremlin speechwriter-turned-critic Abbas Gallyamov said in a YouTube debate, accessible in Russia, on Thursday. “It is important for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to show all potential conspirators, who might follow in Prigozhin’s footsteps, that it will not pass unnoticed. But on the other hand, Prigozhin had a lot of projects on the go, in Africa, Belarus, Syria. It’s hard to believe that Putin would risk all this. It’s like shooting himself in the foot. But it does seem that’s what happened.”

Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
Russian service members inspect wreckage of a private jet near the village of Kuzhenkino, Tver region, Russia, Aug. 24, 2023. Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was reportedly one of the 10 people on the jet when it crashed, killing all aboard.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, says he believes that external enemies had every motive to kill Mr. Prigozhin, while no one in Russia would have wanted to. Still, he says, “people in Russia are concerned about the circumstances of Prigozhin’s death. They want our top authorities to make clear and transparent decisions, and they don’t understand this situation.”

“There is only one Russian actor in Ukraine now”

People who challenge Kremlin power in Russia have a way of coming to hard and sometimes bizarre ends. Mr. Prigozhin’s death will be added to a list that includes Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, and Boris Nemtsov. Add to that several failed poisonings, such as the attacks on Sergei Skripal and anti-corruption crusader Alexei Navalny. Few dispute that Mr. Putin is to blame, at least for creating the fractious system of state governance in which he acts as supreme arbiter among various factions, individuals, and interest groups who vie for his favor and often undermine each other.

On the other hand, some analysts argue, the Kremlin has a far more effective machine for sidelining and silencing opponents than anything that headline-grabbing and often botched assassinations could possibly achieve.

Mr. Navalny, who survived at least one poisoning attempt amid a glare of publicity, has been sentenced to decades in prison in Kremlin-controlled courts, and has largely disappeared from Western media discourse. Mr. Navalny recently issued a scathing manifesto from prison that has been widely debated in Russian opposition circles, but has gone almost unnoticed in the Western media. Another example is Boris Kagarlitsky, arguably Russia’s leading left-wing intellectual. He has been in a pretrial detention center in the Arctic region of Komi for months because of his anti-war stance, with few noticing outside of left-wing circles in the West.

Prigozhin Press Service/AP
Yevgeny Prigozhin asks Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to withdraw the remaining Ukrainian forces from Bakhmut to save their lives, from an unspecified location in Ukraine, March 3, 2023. Behind Mr. Prigozhin's Wagner forces, Russia saw one of its few clear victories in the Ukraine war when it took Bakhmut.

There seems little doubt that Mr. Prigozhin’s fall from grace in Moscow began several months ago, even as his large, powerful private army was winning the only clear military victory that Russia has enjoyed in Ukraine so far this year, at Bakhmut. The very existence of such a force, acting outside the control of the Defense Ministry, may have been enabled by President Putin’s desire to fight without placing Russian society on a full war footing. Instead, Russia used Wagner mercenaries, ragtag separatist militias, Chechens, and volunteers to do much of the fighting.

But when Russian forces suffered catastrophic battlefield setbacks a year ago, Mr. Putin ordered a military mobilization and began the process of placing Russia’s economy on a war footing. By last spring, the Russian Defense Ministry had consolidated its control over most of the Ukrainian front line, integrating separatist and other forces into the central chain of command.

Mr. Prigozhin, with a huge mercenary army made up in large part of freed convicts, was an anomaly. His open feud with the Defense Ministry, which he accused of corruption, incompetence, and “criminal mistakes,” was a very public embarrassment for the Kremlin. After Wagner declared victory in Bakhmut in May, Mr. Putin ordered the mercenary force to disband. Mr. Prigozhin’s muddled and abortive revolt followed.

“There is only one Russian actor in Ukraine now, and it’s the Defense Ministry,” says Mr. Markov. “If there are any Wagners still there, they are all under army contracts now.”

But Mr. Markov says he doubts that the Kremlin was involved in Mr. Prigozhin’s death. “I just don’t see what Putin could possibly accomplish by killing Prigozhin, other than a lot of bad publicity,” he says. “No one in Russia needed this.”

Nonetheless, Andrei Kolesnikov, an expert with Carnegie who continues to work in Russia, argues in a draft article that he provided to the Monitor by email that Russian and Soviet secret-police traditions run deep, and Mr. Prigozhin’s removal after his “betrayal” of Mr. Putin was inevitable.

“Extrajudicial killings have become the new normal in Russia,” he writes. “The system built by Putin is designed in such a way that it does not need public executions [as in other autocracies] or official trials [as is usual in democracies]. ... It’s pointless to speculate about whether Putin has strengthened his power as a result of Prigozhin’s business jet disaster. The autocrat remained the top leader after the mutiny, and the winner takes it all.”

The Kremlin’s new focus on Africa

Now, analysts suggest, the front lines in Africa will also be occupied by official forces of the Russian state following the effective destruction of Wagner. The battle for influence in Africa has ceased to be a sideshow in Moscow, and is now a front in what is increasingly seen as a global confrontation between Russia and the West.

French Army/AP/File
Russian mercenaries board a helicopter in northern Mali. The Wagner Group has deployed its personnel to Syria, the Central African Republic, Libya, and Mali.

In the volatile Sahel region, the Russian Defense Ministry has been actively developing a direct presence, says Ivan Loshkariov, an Africa expert with Moscow State University of International Relations, which trains Russian diplomats.

“In West Africa there is growing military cooperation on a state-to-state basis,” he says. “It makes sense. The Wagners can’t sell weapons, train officers, engage in diplomacy. In the Central African Republic, the Ministry of Defense helped to craft the [now failed] Khartoum agreement in 2019. There are Wagners in Mali and Burkina Faso, but official contacts are also increasing. In Niger, Russia is not being asked, and it is not coming.”

Mr. Markov says it’s likely that the Wagner forces who have operated below the radar for years in Africa will at least be placed under new management.

“There is a vacuum now to be filled,” he says. “So maybe the Wagners will get a new owner, one that’s more reliable in the eyes of the Russian government. Or, there will be more official presence. There are strong reasons to increase direct state control in [Russian dealings] in Africa.”

Analysis

Why Haley and Ramaswamy dominated the GOP debate

The eight Republicans onstage in Milwaukee gave voters plenty of fodder for discussion on the future of the GOP – if not the possibility that Donald Trump could somehow lose the nomination.

Brian Snyder/Reuters
Former biotech executive Vivek Ramaswamy and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley spar with each other at the first Republican candidates' debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, in Milwaukee, Aug. 23, 2023.
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The Republican presidential debate Wednesday night was surprisingly riveting – a chance to assess Donald Trump’s opponents for the 2024 nomination without the distraction of the former U.S. president’s outsize persona.

Vivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy entrepreneur rising in the polls, was a youthful stand-in for Mr. Trump. Barely old enough to run for president, Mr. Ramaswamy managed to compare himself to both former President Barack Obama and Mr. Trump. An American-born son of Indian immigrants, Mr. Ramaswamy called himself a “skinny guy with a funny last name,” an echo of Mr. Obama’s pitch in 2004.

But with no previous experience in politics and a charismatic personality, Mr. Ramaswamy could also portray himself as a Trump-like figure, bringing a businessperson’s sensibility to governance. He was the most MAGA – ”Make America Great Again” – candidate on stage Wednesday, and thus possibly a contender for Mr. Trump’s vice president or Cabinet member.

Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump, was another standout Wednesday night. She articulately framed the Republican Party’s challenge on abortiongovernment spending, and support for Ukraine, and as the only woman in the Republican field, she stood in for many voters in a key segment of the electorate.

Why Haley and Ramaswamy dominated the GOP debate

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The Republican presidential debate Wednesday night was surprisingly riveting – a chance to assess Donald Trump’s opponents for the 2024 nomination without the distraction of the former president’s outsize persona.

Mr. Trump was absent by choice, and remains the runaway frontrunner for the GOP nomination. What’s more, the former president chose Thursday evening on which to surrender in Atlanta for his latest indictment, an obvious effort to eclipse postmortems on the debate and keep the focus on him.

But the eight Republicans on stage in Milwaukee last night gave voters plenty of fodder for discussion on the future of the GOP – and the country – if not the possibility that Mr. Trump could somehow lose the nomination. More likely, those on stage included potential running mates for Mr. Trump or members of his Cabinet if he regains the Oval Office.

Vivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy entrepreneur rising in the polls, was a youthful stand-in for Mr. Trump. Barely old enough to run for president, Mr. Ramaswamy managed to compare himself to both former President Barack Obama and Mr. Trump. An American-born son of Indian immigrants, Mr. Ramaswamy called himself a “skinny guy with a funny last name,” an echo of Mr. Obama’s pitch in 2004.

But with no previous experience in politics and a charismatic personality, Mr. Ramaswamy could also portray himself as a Trump-like figure, bringing a businessperson’s sensibility to governance. He was the most MAGA – ”Make America Great Again” – candidate on stage Wednesday, and thus possibly a contender for Trump vice president or Cabinet member.

Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump, was another standout Wednesday night. She articulately framed the GOP’s challenge on abortiongovernment spending, and support for Ukraine, and as the only woman in the Republican field, stood in for many voters in a key segment of the electorate.

“At the end of the day, you look at the 2024 budget, Republicans asked for $7.4 billion in earmarks. Democrats asked for $2.8 billion,” Ms. Haley said. “So you tell me, who are the big spenders? I think it’s time for an accountant in the White House.”

Brian Snyder/Reuters
Six of the eight Republican presidential contenders indicate that they would support Donald Trump as their party's 2024 White House nominee even if he is convicted of a crime at the first GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee, Aug. 23, 2023.

Maybe “accountant in the White House” isn’t the most compelling message, but Ms. Haley’s point is important. Republicans used to stand for fiscal responsibility, and after the free-spending Trump era, that’s now in doubt. Her call for fiscal prudence speaks to a significant portion of the GOP base, and it’s a message she could build on.

Ms. Haley’s message on abortion – a nuanced take on the reality of women in an unwanted pregnancy – also introduced a fresh perspective in a male-dominated field that could help the GOP.

It’s easy to say that, with no clear winner, Mr. Trump “won” the first Republican debate. But his decision to skip the debate could also be portrayed as a mistake. As a TV performer focused on ratings, he missed the opportunity for a big cable audience, opting instead for an interview with former Fox host Tucker Carlson on X, the website formerly known as Twitter.

But it’s also apparent that Mr. Trump “beat” his top primary opponent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has struggled with relatability. Governor DeSantis barely smiled during the two-hour debate. And while he didn’t stumble, he also didn’t distinguish himself. Mr. DeSantis needed a breakout moment, and it didn’t happen.

It’s still early, and maybe Mr. DeSantis can step up his game. As a Trump-friendly GOP activist noted by text Thursday morning, “50%+ of Republicans are open to voting for him, which is second behind Trump.”

All of which means, this ain’t over.

Can Christians find safety in Muslim Pakistan?

Pakistan was created as a home for India’s largest religious minority. Recent mob violence raises the question of whether that promise of safe harbor extends to minorities in Pakistan today.

K.M. Chaudary/AP
Women weep after seeing their homes vandalized by an angry mob in Jaranwala near Faisalabad, Pakistan, Aug. 17, 2023. The rampage was a product of growing religious tensions, say experts, and sparked by allegations that local Christians had desecrated the Quran.
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When they heard of the incoming mob last week, some residents of Jaranwala’s Christian Issa Nagri neighborhood hid in fields or factories. Others were sheltered by Muslim friends as rioters looted homes and set churches ablaze, enraged by allegations that two residents had defaced the Quran. 

Non-Muslims make up around 3.5% of Pakistan’s predominantly Sunni Muslim population, and though the country was envisioned as a secular state, it has frequently been accused of majoritarianism. Experts say the state’s policies have allowed religious hostility to flourish, creating a powder keg for violence. 

“Intolerance in Pakistan has witnessed an unfortunate increase due to a combination of factors,” says human rights official Malaika Raza, including the weaponization of Pakistan’s blasphemy laws, which mobs often use to justify vigilantism. 

Now religious minorities and their advocates are demanding accountability, while calling on their fellow citizens to resist division.  

“The first thing that needs to happen is for Muslim and Christian leaders to sit together and to dissolve the hatred between these two communities,” says Maulana Imran Qadri, a local faith leader who made several attempts to pacify the mob. “The people who committed this act violated the principles of Islam.” 

Can Christians find safety in Muslim Pakistan?

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In the Christian neighborhood of Issa Nagri lie the ruins of a once thriving church – one of more than a dozen that were targeted after rumors spread that a couple of Christian residents in Jaranwala, Pakistan, had defaced the Holy Quran.

On the morning of Aug. 16, an incensed mob wreaked havoc on the building and the adjoining courtyard. Hundreds of Muslim men knocked down the walls, desecrated the nave, burned copies of the Bible, and set fire to the furniture.

“The violence started in a different neighborhood,” recalls resident Rashid Javed. “When people found out what was happening, they started evacuating the area.” Some hid in fields or factories; others fled to relatives’ homes.

When the mob arrived in Issa Nagri, rioters began to loot the abandoned houses. “They stole the fan in my house,” says Pervez Masih. “My daughter-in-law had 1.5 tola [approximately 18 grams] of jewelry, and they took that as well.”

Non-Muslims make up around 3.5% of Pakistan’s predominantly Sunni Muslim population, and though the country was envisioned by its founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah as a secular state, it has frequently been accused of majoritarianism. Experts say the state’s policies have allowed intolerance to flourish, creating a powder keg for violence. Now religious minorities and their advocates are demanding accountability, while calling on their fellow citizens to resist division.

Hasan Ali
Issa Nagri resident Rashid Javed stands amid the ruins of his local church, Aug. 21, 2023 in Jaranwala, Pakistan.

“The first thing that needs to happen is for Muslim and Christian leaders to sit together and to dissolve the hatred between these two communities,” says Maulana Imran Qadri, a local faith leader who gave sanctuary to two Christian women and made several attempts to pacify the mob. “The people who committed this act violated the principles of Islam. ... Our Prophet said that it was incumbent upon all Muslims to protect Christian places of worship till the end of time. If you’re willing to give your lives to defend the honor of the Prophet, you must also be willing to defend his teachings.”

More than 160 Muslims have been arrested by police as well as the two Christian men who allegedly committed blasphemy.

Under Pakistan’s penal code, blasphemy is punishable by death. Though no one has ever been executed, vigilante mobs like the one in Jaranwala have murdered several people accused of disrespecting the Islamic faith. Earlier this month, Abdul Rauf, a Muslim English teacher, was gunned down in Turbat after his students accused him of blaspheming in one of his lectures.

“Religious intolerance in Pakistan has witnessed an unfortunate increase due to a combination of factors,” says Malaika Raza, the general secretary for human rights of the Pakistan People’s Party. “The rise of extremist ideologies, weaponization of blasphemy laws, growing income inequalities, political and social unrest have contributed to a climate where differing religious beliefs are met with hostility.”

Many trace the problem back to the late 1970s, when the administration of military dictator Gen. Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq embarked on a policy of Islamization. Having persecuted and hanged a secular political leader in Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, General Zia consolidated his grip on power by re-imagining the state according to his interpretation of Islamic teachings. This included the establishment of Shariat courts, the introduction of punishments for immorality, and the promotion of religious conservatism in schools and universities.

Charlotte Greenfield/Reuters
Kanwal (right), a Christian who was displaced along with her family by sectarian violence, comforts her 12-day-old baby boy while taking refuge in a school set up as a temporary shelter, in Jaranwala, Pakistan, Aug. 21, 2023.

According to feminist scholar Farzana Bari, these policies, coupled with the Pakistani state’s support for the Afghan mujahedeen during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, created an “ecosystem of intolerance.”

“During the Cold War era, the state used religiosity to create a jihadi mindset,” she says. “They used madrassas [religious schools] and the education system to create a way of thinking that was both sectarian and fundamentalist.”  

More recently, critics have accused Pakistan’s military establishment of using hard-line religious groups to pressure politicians and human rights activists. 

“Religious bigots are given a free hand and even encouraged by the state to act with impunity,” says left-wing historian Ammar Ali Jan. “The result is that [religion] is becoming the only vehicle for popular mobilization. You protest for human rights, you get arrested immediately. You create an anti-minority mob, and the state vanishes.”

But Murtaza Solangi – who is serving as the minister of information and broadcasting in the caretaker government – affirms caretaker Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar’s commitment to tackling religious extremism. 

“The prime minister’s vision is that Pakistan was created due to the fear of a Hindu majoritarian state, to protect the then-Muslim minority groups of India. Anti-majoritarianism is the essence of Pakistan,” he says. The prime minister “said that our state shall stand by the weak, vulnerable, marginalized.”

On Monday, authorities distributed 2 million rupees ($6,800) each to around 100 Christian families whose houses had been attacked last week. A day earlier, the caretaker chief minister of Punjab assured Jaranwala’s Christian community that the government would restore the damaged churches to their original condition. 

However, survivors say financial compensation is not sufficient justice. “We want assurances that this sort of incident will never happen again,” says Christian resident Tehmina David. “Our holy book tells us to forgive those who do not know what they do, but it’s becoming very difficult to live in this version of Pakistan.”

“For Christians like us, this sort of incident is a form of torture,” says Pastor Jamil, a relief worker who came from Karachi to distribute aid. “What’s happening here is like dying every day.” 

If there is any consolation, it is in the strong public response to the events in Jaranwala. Faith leaders and politicians have roundly condemned the attacks and expressed solidarity with the Christian community. On Saturday, International Interfaith Harmony Council President Hafiz Tahir Ashrafi described the violence in Jaranwala as an attack on all Pakistanis. 

“The rioters have shamed us for which I apologize to Christians all over the world including those in Pakistan,” he said. “I was traveling when I saw the images of Christian daughters spending the night in the fields. My eyes filled with tears because I felt that these were ... my own daughters.”

There have also been reports of Muslims in Jaranwala coming to the aid of Christian neighbors. 

“Our Muslim brothers and sisters have stood by us,” says Lubna, a local Christian woman who declined to give her surname. “There were Muslims who came and burned down our homes and Muslims who came to save our lives. Not everyone is the same.”

Patterns

Tracing global connections

Ambitious Saudi prince is playing the China card

Saudi Arabia’s young leader envisions his kingdom as a world power. He is using the country’s enormous wealth, and a flirtation with Beijing, to boost his international status.

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It is an astonishing turnaround: A Mideast leader vilified just five years ago for the murder and dismemberment of prominent democracy advocate Jamal Khashoggi is now being eagerly courted by Washington and its Western allies.

Not because Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has done anything to mend fences with his international critics. He has shrugged off human rights concerns, touting his vision of his country as a less oil-dependent economy, a leading player in world sports, and a major power on the world stage.

Crucially, he has been forging increasingly close ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Washington is seeking to mediate a historic peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which would restore its position as the key diplomatic player in the Middle East. But Riyadh is striking a hard bargain and spreading its wings in other fields, reportedly hoping to join Britain, Italy, and Japan in a consortium to build next-generation fighter jets.

On Thursday, the kingdom joined the BRICS group of emerging economies, as China had advocated. A leader whom Joe Biden, as a U.S. presidential candidate, once termed an international “pariah” in the wake of the Khashoggi killing, is a pariah no more.

Ambitious Saudi prince is playing the China card

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Saudi Press Agency/AP/File
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, harbors vaulting global ambitions for his country.

It is a truly remarkable turnaround: A Mideast leader vilified just five years ago for the murder and dismemberment of a prominent democracy advocate is now being eagerly courted by Washington and its major Western allies.

And that’s not because Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has done anything to mend fences with his international critics since his security officers allegedly lured Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 and killed him.

Quite the opposite. Shrugging off human rights concerns, he has deployed his country’s vast oil riches in pursuit of his “Vision 2030,” with the aim of building a less oil-dependent economy; making Saudi Arabia a leading player in golf, soccer, and other world sports; and imposing the kingdom not just as a regional force but a major power on the world stage.

MBS, as the crown prince is known, has been playing diplomatic hardball with Washington, which for decades has been Saudi Arabia’s key overseas ally. Last October, for example, in a reflection of the understanding Riyadh has reached with Moscow, the Saudi leader dealt a humiliating rebuff to U.S. President Joe Biden’s plea for increased oil production to stem price rises.

More strategically – and this is one major reason why the United States and other Western countries have been muting their human rights criticisms – he has been forging increasingly close ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

All of this has now left the Biden administration at a defining moment in America’s relationships and role in the Middle East – a region, ironically, that successive administrations have been de-emphasizing in order to focus on Washington’s main rival, China.

An immediate issue is a complex new Mideast diplomatic initiative, which has seen senior U.S. officials meeting with the Saudis throughout the summer.

The idea is that the Americans would mediate a historic peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is not just the preeminent Arab power but also home to Mecca and Medina, the two holiest sites for the world’s nearly 2 billion Muslims.

AP
Saudi fans welcome Brazilian soccer star Neymar Jr. at the ceremony marking his new membership of Saudi Al Hilal club, which paid a reported $98 million for him. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman envisions his kingdom as a sporting superpower.

Delicate questions have yet to be worked out between Saudi Arabia and Israel – chiefly the Saudis’ reported insistence that Israel’s far-right government recommit to the idea of an eventual two-state agreement with the Palestinians.

Yet it is becoming increasingly clear that the main key to any deal will be a geopolitical trade-off between the U.S. and the Saudis.

For Washington, it’s primarily about China.

A U.S.-brokered peace would reassert America’s traditional role as the key diplomatic power in the Middle East. That would hold particular significance in the wake of Crown Prince Mohammed’s embrace of Chinese mediation six months ago to finalize a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.

But MBS is making it clear he wants a quid pro quo. In fact, three of them. The least difficult is his demand for more advanced U.S. weaponry. But he is also pressing for a formal NATO-style security treaty with Washington, and for U.S. approval to enrich uranium for civilian nuclear facilities – both of which Washington has been reluctant to consider in the past.

His wish list underscores the extent to which Saudi Arabia still relies on the U.S. for its security.

But almost week by week, there have been signs that an ever more self-confident MBS could yet walk away from the negotiations if he doesn’t get what he wants.

He is certainly not ruffled by U.S. human rights concerns. Though overseeing genuine social reforms – reining in the once-powerful religious police, starting to expand rights for women, and opening the country to Western culture, even to the blockbuster “Barbie” – he has kept a draconian lid on dissent.

Hundreds have been detained for criticizing government policies, and some have been given decadeslong sentences in jails where Human Rights Watch recently said that “torture and mistreatment remain pervasive.”

Saudi Press Agency/AP/File
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas arrives in Saudi Arabia for an Arab summit last May. Riyadh is said to be insisting that Israel recommit to a two-state agreement with the Palestinians in return for a peace treaty.

This week, a new report from Human Rights Watch documented “widespread and systematic” killing by Saudi troops of Ethiopian migrants trying to cross the country’s southern border with Yemen.

Yet on the diplomatic stage, MBS was recently welcomed by French President Emmanuel Macron. A visit to Britain is reportedly set for this fall.

This month, he hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a conference attended by delegates from dozens of countries, including the U.S. and China.

A few days later, it was reported that Riyadh is seeking to join Britain, Italy, and Japan in a consortium to build next-generation fighter jets.

And on Thursday, the BRICS group of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – which Beijing has been trying to expand so as to create a more effective counterweight to U.S. influence – announced that Saudi Arabia would be one of six new members.

None of this necessarily means the crown prince will succeed in making his Vision 2030 a reality. But at age 37, with no visible challenge at home, he clearly expects to be a political force for decades to come.

And one thing seems clear for now.

A leader whom Mr. Biden, as a presidential candidate, once termed an international “pariah” in the wake of the Khashoggi killing, is a pariah no more.

Graphic

Leaving California for Texas? Mapping where Americans move.

Last year saw a surge in Americans moving – and more often away from big cities – compared with the pre-pandemic year of 2019. We explore the trends in maps and graphics.

California is shrinking. 

No, the state isn’t falling into the Pacific Ocean. But after decades of growth, America’s most populous state has been shedding residents for the past several years, while rivals Texas and Florida continue to gain.

Part of the explanation has to do with trends in immigration, births, and deaths, but an important factor is also people choosing to move across state lines for reasons that can range from jobs or housing costs to things like politics, outdoor amenities, and family ties. 

Last year, domestic migration was boosting population growth across much of the South and in mountain states like Idaho and Montana. Meanwhile, a number of states saw meaningful outflows, including New York and Illinois.

Challenges may be especially big for large cities, many of which have been shedding population relative to suburbs and exurbs. Still, demographer William Frey at the Brookings Institution cites evidence that an “urban core turnaround” may be underway.

– Mark Trumbull, staff writer

SOURCE:

U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, WalletHub

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Jake Turcotte, Mark Trumbull, Karen Norris/Staff

Difference-maker

How Indigenous collaboration is saving the cougar

How do you free a predator hemmed in by human development? In Washington state, scientists and Native American tribes are working to find a solution for trapped cougars.

Mark Elbroch/Panthera
Since 2018, the collaborative Olympic Cougar Project has tagged 111 individual pumas, including Charlotte, above.
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If Kim Sager-Fradkin didn’t have to write a grant proposal, she’d be spending her afternoon on the trail of a killer. 

The biologist leads a team that’s researching cougars in Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. It’s tempting to call her a CSI – cougar scene investigator – but her formal title is wildlife program manager for the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe.

She’s overseeing the Olympic Cougar Project in partnership with Panthera, a nonprofit that protects species of big cats, and five other Native American tribes. They’ve pooled their talents and resources to help an apex predator that has become effectively imprisoned in the westernmost part of Washington. 

The region’s cougars are penned inside a geographical island roughly shaped like a square. Three sides are bordered by the ocean and bays. To the south there’s the expansive Columbia River as well as Interstate 5. By collecting data on the big cats, the Olympic Cougar Project is bolstering the case for constructing a wildlife overpass over I-5 so that the species is less confined. 

“By protecting and understanding habitats used by cougars, we are protecting and understanding habitats used by a lot of other animals,” says Ms. Sager-Fradkin. “It’s big-picture conservation.”

How Indigenous collaboration is saving the cougar

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If Kim Sager-Fradkin didn’t have to write a grant proposal, she’d be spending her afternoon on the trail of a killer. 

The biologist leads a team that’s researching cougars in Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. (The big cat is also referred to as a puma or a mountain lion.) Today, the team is tracking a cougar named James. It suspects he recently hunted an animal in a nearby forest. 

“Visiting cougar kill sites is really fun and like being sort of a forensic scientist,” says Ms. Sager-Fradkin. 

It’s tempting to call her a CSI – cougar scene investigator – but her formal title is wildlife program manager for the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe. She’s overseeing the Olympic Cougar Project in partnership with Panthera, a nonprofit that protects species of big cats, and five other Native American tribes. They’ve pooled their talents and resources to help an apex predator that has become effectively imprisoned in the westernmost part of Washington. 

The region’s cougars are penned inside a geographical island roughly shaped like a square. Three sides are bordered by the ocean and bays. To the south there’s the expansive Columbia River as well as Interstate 5. The barriers on all four sides collectively form a de facto fence. Unable to easily connect with other big cats in the Pacific Northwest, cougars in the Olympic Peninsula are inbreeding. The lack of genetic diversity poses health challenges for them, scientists say. By collecting data on the big cats, the Olympic Cougar Project is bolstering the case for constructing a wildlife overpass over I-5 so that the species is less confined.

“Humans love wildlife stories, and humans love wildlife movements,” says biologist Jim Williams, author of “Path of the Puma: The Remarkable Resilience of the Mountain Lion.” “What’s really neat about this project is it’s going to create information that will be translated through story that will keep humans excited and caring about the species.” 

Inside a conference room at the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe’s Natural Resources Department, Ms. Sager-Fradkin and fellow biologist Dave Manson swap stories about their favorite cougars. They both have affection for Bramble, a mother of multiple litters who once survived being hit by a car going 55 mph. She also managed to discard the GPS collar they’d put on her. 

Mark Elbroch/Panthera
Members of the Olympic Cougar Project, including Kim Sager-Fradkin (standing, at left) and Vanessa Castle (standing, at right), and the Administration for Native Americans oversee the sedation and GPS collar fitting for a male cougar in Washington state.

“She’s feisty,” marvels Ms. Sager-Fradkin. “She outsmarts us all the time. We can’t get a collar on her again. We’ve tried.”

When Ms. Sager-Fradkin began working for the tribe in 2007, her primary role was to plan sustainable subsistence hunting and fishing for current and future generations. A year later, she initiated a small-scale study of cougars in the region. She called in cougar expert Mark Elbroch. In 2018, they expanded the scope and scale, incorporating the five other tribes in the region and adopting the Olympic Cougar Project name. 

“The tribes on the peninsula aren’t always working together on a lot of things,” says Ms. Sager-Fradkin, adding that there are sometimes disagreements over issues such as hunting jurisdictions. “So it’s really amazing that we’ve all come together and are working on a big project like this.” 

To get all the partners on board, she had to get them to see the big picture.

In the field 

On a June afternoon, Mr. Manson heads out to conduct fieldwork while his boss writes the grant proposal. 

He parks his SUV on a dirt road, picks up a hand-held GPS unit, and plunges into a forest. Surefooted and nimble, the biologist clambers over fallen tree trunks and uneven terrain. The few shards of sunlight that pierce the leaf canopy cast glitter-ball shapes on the bracken. GPS signals indicate that James, who is collared, has been spending a lot of time in this particular spot. 

It doesn’t take long for Mr. Manson to find what untrained eyes would miss – the burial site of a fawn. The cougar covered it up with sticks and branches. The biologist conjectures that a scavenger ate the rest of the remains. “I’m guessing a bear,” he says, doing his best to ignore mosquitoes swarming around him. 

The cougars are considered an “umbrella species” because so many other creatures in the ecosystem depend on them. “Where there are frequent kills, the grass is literally more nutrient rich,” explains Ms. Sager-Fradkin. “All the way up to the bears and eagles and everything else. ... A lot of other animals are getting food from cougar kills.”

It was this fact that helped her persuade the region’s tribes that it was in their common interest to study the feline carnivore. 

Jesse Major/Peninsula Daily News/Sound Publishing
Team members (left to right) Cameron Macias, Kim Sager-Fradkin, and Mark Elbroch investigate an elk killed by a cougar named Apollo.

For his part, Dr. Elbroch, director of the puma program at Panthera, adds that Ms. Sager-Fradkin used her natural skill of engaging with people to build a community. “What was so essential to seeing this project succeed was that network,” he says during a Zoom interview. “Without it, it was a nonstarter.”

“Wildlife all is intertwined”

Working in concert, the Skokomish, Makah, Quinault, Jamestown S’Klallam, and Lower Elwha Klallam tribes have created a grid consisting of 550 cameras. Artificial intelligence catalogs animals photographed in the peninsula – including bobcats, bears, coyotes, deer, and elk – and helps estimate their populations. Research technicians, such as Lower Elwha Klallam tribe member Vanessa Castle, analyze the patterns of 127 individual cougars. There’s also the less glamorous task of analyzing animal scat. 

“A lot of our ancestral knowledge was lost,” says Ms. Castle, who praises how Ms. Sager-Fradkin has mentored her and other employees in the project. “So we’re having to relearn those things. Like how wildlife all is intertwined with each other. ... I had no idea the role that mountain lions played in the system as a whole.”

The cougar is still a relatively unknown species. The cats can be found in 28 countries across the Americas. “This species is fiercely independent,” says Dr. Elbroch. “Agile, strong, curious, but incredibly cautious. They’re, of course, masters of invisibility.”

The tagged cougars aren’t, however, hidden to the satellites that track them. The Olympic Cougar Project has been able to document numerous examples of how individual cats have roamed hundreds miles in unsuccessful bids to find a way out of the region. 

“They’re coming up with some really interesting information, which doesn’t surprise me because this species is so adaptable,” says biologist Maurice Hornocker, author of the memoir “Cougars on the Cliff: One Man’s Pioneering Quest To Understand the Mythical Mountain Lion.” 

“They can live on the Olympic Peninsula,” he says, “and they can live in Death Valley. They can even live in Los Angeles.” 

Dr. Elbroch says conservation groups are in talks with Washington state about two potential options for a wildlife bridge or underpass on I-5.

“The first thing that is needed is to protect the habitat on either side, because you can’t spend all the money on a wildlife bridge and then end up with a Walmart parking lot right on one side,” says Ms. Sager-Fradkin. 

The Olympic Cougar Project is not just liberating the big cats, she adds, but also creating a sustainable ecosystem for the tribes for the next seven generations.

“By protecting and understanding habitats used by cougars, we are protecting and understanding habitats used by a lot of other animals,” she says. “It’s big-picture conservation.” 

“We care for something in common,” she says. “Everybody’s invested. I don’t think any of us view this as just a job.”

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China tries freewheeling science

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China’s history over the last half-century has been mainly about this: how much freedom the Chinese Communist Party would allow its citizens – from speech to private investment to a couple’s choice on the number of children. Now, with the Chinese economy in rapid decline, the party has begun to actually push freedom on a particular group: researchers in basic science.

Their creativity and curiosity – which require the freedom to share, challenge, and even fail – will be key to achieving the kind of breakthroughs that can boost economic productivity and help China get out of its slump. The world economy may depend on this rising bit of freedom under a one-party dictatorship.

Two years ago, party leader Xi Jinping called for scientists to have more “autonomy” as China tries to achieve self-reliance in technology. Now Chinese scientists are seeing more leeway in their work. That taste of freedom may lift the world’s second-largest economy. Yet like a good discovery from a lab, it could also open thoughts of freedom among all Chinese.

China tries freewheeling science

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Reuters
Researchers work in the laboratory of the cultivated meat company CellX in Shanghai, China, Aug. 9.

China’s history over the last half-century has been mainly about this: how much freedom the Chinese Communist Party would allow its citizens – from speech to private investment to a couple’s choice on the number of children. Now, with the Chinese economy in rapid decline, the party has begun to actually push freedom on a particular group: researchers in basic science.

Their creativity and curiosity – which require the freedom to share, challenge, and even fail – will be key to achieving the kind of breakthroughs that can boost economic productivity and help China get out of its slump. The world economy may depend on this rising bit of freedom under a one-party dictatorship.

“Without a free and open sci-tech management system, no amount of money is enough to make stunning scientific breakthroughs,” declared a recent article on the Beijing-based news website Caixin Global. “On China’s journey to pursue the ‘endless frontier’ of science and technology, academic freedom and openness become the bedrock.”

In March, control over official spending on basic research was shifted from a government agency – known for bureaucratic rigidity and rules – to a new party-managed body that may allow scientists to set priorities on their research. The party has elevated leaders with science backgrounds to high positions and opened the door for foreign investors to set up research labs. In a recent speech, Bi Jingquan, executive vice chair of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, emphasized that originality in science requires freedom of exploration.

China’s decadeslong playbook of imitating and assimilating foreign research and making small innovations on those major inventions may be nearing an end. “Once Chinese scientists reach the technological frontier, they must adjust their strategy to engage in cutting-edge and future-defining research,” writes Australian scholar Marina Yue Zhang in East Asia Forum. Dr. Zhang co-wrote the recent book “Demystifying China’s Innovation Machine.”

Two years ago, party leader Xi Jinping called for scientists to have more “autonomy” as China tries to achieve self-reliance in technology. Now Chinese scientists are seeing more leeway in their work. That taste of freedom may lift the world’s second-largest economy. Yet like a good discovery from a lab, it could also open thoughts of freedom among all Chinese.

A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

Making a difference with ‘thermostat’ prayers

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When faced with inharmony – including extreme weather – starting from the standpoint of harmony as divine fact fuels prayer that makes a difference, as a woman experienced after severe drought threatened crops on her family’s land.

Making a difference with ‘thermostat’ prayers

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Today's Christian Science Perspective audio edition

A weather alert flashed across my smartphone, advising me to prepare for another day of record-breaking temperatures. Not just where I live, but globally, weather extremes have affected millions of individuals.

Having previously experienced the effectiveness of prayer through my study and practice of Christian Science, I wanted to pray about this – but how?

That’s when I came across a quote by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Referring to the early days of Christianity, he wrote, “In those days the church was not merely a thermometer that recorded the ideas and principles of popular opinion; it was a thermostat that transformed the mores of society.”

While Dr. King’s words were aimed at social justice, they got me thinking about how the idea of thermometers and thermostats might apply to prayer about the weather. Thermometers record. Thermostats transform.

Mary Baker Eddy, the founder of Christian Science, saw a connection between the damaging characteristics of mortal, selfish, material ways of thinking and destructive environmental phenomena. She observed, “Erring power is a material belief, a blind miscalled force, the offspring of will and not of wisdom, of the mortal mind and not of the immortal. It is the headlong cataract, the devouring flame, the tempest’s breath. It is lightning and hurricane, all that is selfish, wicked, dishonest, and impure” (“Science and Health with Key to the Scriptures,” p. 192).

By contrast, God is the infinite, all-loving, all-powerful divine Mind that “sends forth the aroma of Spirit, the atmosphere of intelligence” (Science and Health, pp. 191-192). Being infinite, this Mind, Spirit, is the only legitimate source or creator. And its creation – all that’s good and true – is entirely spiritual and harmonious.

Christ Jesus illustrated how realizing the supremacy of this atmosphere of divine intelligence – recognizing spiritual harmony, not physical inharmony, as fixed fact – has practical value. Once when Jesus was traveling with his disciples by boat, they encountered a fierce storm. His disciples were afraid that they all might perish. But instead of accepting the storm as inescapable, Jesus brought the disciples into the peace of God – the only real atmosphere there is. He did this by casting out the fear that had kept the disciples from discerning the harmony of God right at hand.

Each of us, too, can learn from Jesus’ example and apply it today.

Several years ago, our family partnered with a farmer to grow crops on some land that we owned. One year the farmer informed us that due to extreme drought conditions, we would likely lose the entire crop.

I had experienced through Christian Science that the human picture adjusts as spiritual facts clear away material beliefs and fears. So my prayers to address this situation involved reasoning with spiritual facts.

For instance: All that truly exists is spiritual ideas – created and sustained by the Mind that is God, and therefore already including everything needed to be complete and healthy. God’s creation can’t lack anything needed to fulfill its purpose and be productive. Also, since another synonym for God is Love, as the Bible puts forth, divine creation includes no harshness to cause damage.

It took some discipline to hold to those spiritual facts, since initial reports did not support that outlook. However, when we next had the opportunity to visit the area, neighbors asked us what we had done to produce such a good crop. We hadn’t even been able to water the crops. The only thing that accounted for the difference was prayer!

In a short piece for the Boston Globe, Mary Baker Eddy wrote, “... the atmosphere of the human mind, when cleansed of self and permeated with divine Love, will reflect this purified subjective state in clearer skies, less thunderbolts, tornadoes, and extremes of heat and cold...” (“The First Church of Christ, Scientist, and Miscellany,” p. 265).

Prayer based on the spiritual fact of God’s goodness and supremacy brings about an understanding that turbulent, destructive qualities are not part of the true nature of any of God’s creation – including us, as children of God. This opens the door to seeing inharmony give place to harmony.

Such prayers are more than thermometers rising and falling with prevailing attitudes. They have the potential to be thermostats, bringing to hearts, minds, and lives the calming influence of divine Love as a fresh breath from heaven.

Viewfinder

It’s raining gum

Chris O'Meara/AP
Tampa Bay Rays Brandon Lowe (right) is covered with gum and sunflower seeds by teammate Isaac Paredes after his walk-off single in the 10th inning beat the Colorado Rockies Wednesday in St. Petersburg, Florida.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Karen Norris and Jacob Turcotte. )

A look ahead

Thank you for joining the Monitor today. Please check back tomorrow, when Howard LaFranchi looks at the stirrings of a new vision for Ukraine. Planning for the massive reconstruction effort has already begun at the international level. But in Ukraine, city planners, sociologists, women’s groups, and rights advocates are all promoting not just physical rebuilding, but also a re-imagining of the country that reflects the values and principles of a nation changed by the war.

Our “Why We Wrote This” podcast will also explore how the Monitor thinks about covering presidential debates. 

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