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7 reasons to be optimistic about Israeli-Palestinian peace talks

Experts are understandably skeptical about success for the renewed peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. But key conditions and circumstances are different than in the past. Here are seven reasons to be optimistic about the latest round of Mideast peace talks.

4. Abbas’s legacy

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas yearns to be the godfather of a Palestinian state. At age 78, he knows these talks are his last chance. Israeli settlements are growing year by year in the West Bank and at some point soon there won’t be enough land available for a viable Palestinian state. The more settlers Israel has to evacuate under the terms of a deal, the harder it will become to get one.

Mr. Abbas is aware, too, that failure would leave him without good options. His fallback position would be to apply for membership as a state to more international institutions such as the International Criminal Court and try to wear Israel down through diplomatic and economic pressure.

Abbas also knows that demographic trends are on his side because Palestinian birthrates are much higher than Jewish birthrates, and the Palestinian population as a whole is younger. At some point within the next couple of decades, Arabs will outnumber Israelis if the West Bank remains under Israeli control. Israel will then be forced to choose between remaining a Jewish state or remaining a democracy.

But using future demographics as leverage is no substitute for establishing a Palestinian state now, through negotiations, and offers the Palestinians many more years of Israeli occupation.

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Mark Sappenfield
Editor

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