While many of Sharif’s problems start at home, others are a consequence of Pakistan’s difficult neighborhood. His government takes office at a turning point in the American war in Afghanistan, with NATO forces drawing down and leaving Afghan units to take up the fight. Sharif and the Obama administration do not see eye-to-eye on the Afghan war, and they have been even more at odds over Washington’s drone-heavy counter-terror campaign in Pakistan.
In both cases, the short-term question is whether Sharif will pull Pakistan from cooperation with the United States. Far more likely, he will seek to renegotiate its terms so as to reduce his own exposure to public criticism for working too closely with Washington and to ensure that Pakistan is adequately compensated for what cooperation it provides.
Sharif will win points with Washington and take pressure off his own security forces by advancing a process of normalized relations with India. At the center of that process is relaxing trade restrictions in ways that would contribute to Sharif’s top goal of boosting the economy.
In sum, Sharif must capitalize on his victory to secure a few quick economic reforms while taking a magnanimous and steady-as-she-goes approach to a number of other domestic and international problems. Only then might he manage to build the momentum needed to address Pakistan’s daunting long-term problems.
Daniel Markey is a senior fellow at The Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., and is the author of “No Exit from Pakistan” (forthcoming, Cambridge University Press).
