Israeli strikes leave Iran few security options
| London
Choosing war over diplomacy, Israel early Friday unleashed waves of airstrikes against Iran, targeting its nuclear program and ballistic missile forces, and assassinating top commanders and key nuclear scientists.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a “decisive moment” in Israel’s bid to prevent Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. But the raids also risked prompting Tehran to decide to actually create such a weapon, some experts warned.
“If Iran comes to the conclusion that its regional and conventional deterrents have not stopped Israel from targeting it, the ultimate deterrent [nuclear weapons] will become much more attractive to Iran,” says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group in Washington.
Why We Wrote This
The heaviest strikes in decades against Iranian targets revealed Tehran’s vulnerability to such action. What is the likelihood that the Islamic government might now see a nuclear bomb as its only real deterrent?
The wave of Israeli attacks also appeared to spoil President Donald Trump’s attempts to reach a diplomatic end to key facets of Iran’s nuclear programs. American and Iranian negotiators were due to hold a sixth round of talks Sunday in Oman to find a formula that would strictly limit Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for an end to sanctions that have crushed Iran’s economy.
Amid the escalation of force that Israel called the “opening salvo” in its campaign against Iran, it was not clear if those U.S.-Iran talks would proceed. Also uncertain is whether Iran’s vow to retaliate would include American targets in the region.
Perhaps even more important is the possibility that Israel’s attacks – which it framed as “preemptive,” but which apparently left several key nuclear sites untouched – would now move Iran closer to a decision to secretly pursue a nuclear weapon, as the only form of deterrence against Israel and the United States.
“If you look at the target package in this opening salvo, I think the majority of targets were aimed at destabilizing the regime – not destroying the nuclear program completely,” says Mr. Vaez.
U.S. urges a deal on Iran
Iran has a growing stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity – one technical step away from weapons-grade levels. Iran now has enough to build 10 nuclear weapons, if it chose to, according to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency – all of it made since Mr. Trump in 2018 withdrew Washington from an Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran.
Israeli officials said covert operations teams worked on the ground in Iran on Friday, but it was not clear if saboteurs targeted Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.
U.S. officials portrayed Israel’s strikes as a unilateral action. But Iran believes that Israel’s moves – which Tehran considers a declaration of war – were at least given the green light by Washington, if not actively supported with midair jet refueling and intelligence support.
“Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!” Mr. Trump posted on social media.
He called on Iran to make a deal, writing that “There is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Israel “committed a crime [with] bloodstained hands” and vowed a “severe punishment.” Within hours, Iran launched 100 drones toward Israel. All appeared to have been destroyed, as Israelis scrambled into bomb shelters.
Posting in Hebrew on X, Ayatollah Khamenei warned that Israel “has invited a bitter and painful fate for itself.”
With Iran’s top military leaders reported killed and its ballistic missile bases also targeted, the scale and potency of further Iranian retaliation were uncertain.
Ayatollah Khamenei did not mention the U.S. in his response. But Iran’s foreign ministry said that the Israeli strikes “could not have happened” without American support and that the U.S. is therefore “responsible for the dangerous consequences of this adventurism.”
Israel has prepared for such strikes for decades. But the surprise attack Friday – and breadth of it, beyond nuclear sites – is a gamble for Mr. Netanyahu. Analysts note that previous Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear program, which have included assassinating Iranian scientists and extensive cyberattacks, only temporarily slowed Iranian efforts, and often resulted in increased national resolve.
Iranian public opinion shifts
Public sentiment in Iran has steadily turned in favor of pursuing a nuclear weapon as the only way to ward off Israeli and American attacks such as Friday's assault. Analysts have often said an attack on Iran’s nuclear program could trigger such a move, even though Israeli intelligence penetration of the country appears deep enough to detect it.
“There’s never been a time when there has been more ample justification for [Iran] pursuing nuclear weapons,” says Mr. Vaez. “All the reasoning for a political decision to be made is now there.”
Israel has come to the brink of launching strikes against Iran’s expanding nuclear program several times in recent decades. Friday’s attack was the heaviest by any nation against the Islamic Republic since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
Some 200 Israeli planes flew with apparent impunity through Iranian airspace – undeterred by air defenses weakened by Israeli strikes last October – as they dropped some 300 bombs on 100 targets.
Videos posted by Iranians on social media showed smoke billowing from Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility at Natanz as well as destruction of residential buildings in two dozen affluent neighborhoods of Tehran where top commanders and scientists lived.
Iranian media reported the killing of Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri. A top aide to Ayatollah Khamenei, Ali Shamkhani, a former admiral in charge of nuclear negotiations with the U.S., was also reportedly killed in his home.
Several of Iran’s top nuclear scientists – including Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of Iran’s civilian nuclear power organization, who survived a previous Israeli assassination attempt – were also killed.
Israel appeared to be following the same playbook it recently used to decimate Hezbollah in Lebanon, the most powerful member of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” network of armed regional allies. Israel last year systematically killed Hezbollah leaders, while targeting hundreds of missile sites and top cadres to minimize Hezbollah’s ability to strike back.
Iran, lacking a credible air force and relying on asymmetric means to challenge Israel and the United States, has for years invested heavily in the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, as well as in drone warfare.
Iran’s armed forces said, after Israel “crossed all red lines,” that Iran saw “no limits to respond to this crime.”
