As Trump visits Mideast, Netanyahu’s government is wary of surprises
| Tel Aviv, Israel
The Israeli government has seen Donald Trump’s administration as sympathetic to its goals. But as the U.S. president visits the region this week – notably with no stop scheduled in Israel – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ministers and party faithful seem to be in a panic.
In comments, including tweets made and then deleted, they appear suspicious of what Mr. Trump is planning next that could add to a sinking sense that the Israeli government is being abandoned by the very figure it had championed.
When Mr. Trump was reelected, Mr. Netanyahu’s social media posts overflowed with cheer. He celebrated the victory as “history’s greatest comeback,” a “powerful recommitment” to relations between Israel and the United States. Soon after he beamed at being the first foreign leader invited to the White House.
Why We Wrote This
When Donald Trump was reelected, Benjamin Netanyahu’s social media posts overflowed with cheer. But comments from Israeli coalition members and supporters indicate a sense they’re being abandoned by the very figure they championed.
But this past week the Yediot Aharonot newspaper splashed a large cartoon on the front page depicting Mr. Trump cooking up a soup of “surprises” with a stunned looking Mr. Netanyahu seated behind him, waiting for his dish.
On Tuesday Regional Affairs Minister David Amsalem referred to one of the most recent surprises, a U.S. ceasefire agreement with Yemen’s Houthi militants that sidelined Israel, which continues to be targeted by missiles from Yemen. “It turns out the man is unpredictable,” he told Israel Radio, “wakes up every morning on a different side of the bed.”
Upon taking office, Mr. Trump helped conclude a Gaza ceasefire deal that provided for the release of more Israeli hostages. He didn’t pressure Israel to end its war against Hamas then and there, and even suggested the U.S. might take over the devastated Gaza Strip and resettle much of its population abroad. The plan, since abandoned, had Israel’s far-right government practically swooning.
But recent weeks have seen a shift from the White House, including its decision to again sideline Israel by negotiating directly with Hamas for the release of Edan Alexander, the only surviving American-Israeli hostage. Staff Sgt. Alexander was returned to his family Monday in Israel.
“Everyone is on edge. There’s a lot of pushback in both Washington and Jerusalem insisting that it’s actually ‘business as usual.’ But it’s giving off a sense of ‘Thou doth protest too much,’” says Shalom Lipner, a former longtime Netanyahu aid and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, referring to comments by various U.S. and Israeli officials.
“A number of data points suggest something is amiss,” says Mr. Lipner. “Trump remains nominally favorable toward Israel, but he has an agenda. And his objective for this Mideast trip – to do lots of deals – will clash with Israeli priorities, namely to employ a completely free hand against Hamas and to see Iran’s nuclear program dismantled.”
U.S. shift on Saudi normalization?
Among the decisions striking deep unease within Israel, Mr. Trump announced his administration was going to launch direct negotiations with Israel’s nemesis, Iran. Soon after, he said the U.S. and Houthis had reached their own truce after the militants agreed to stop attacking American ships, but without stipulating they also halt their ballistic missile attacks on Israel. One such missile struck next to Israel’s international airport two days later.
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump met in Saudi Arabia with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, urging him to establish relations with Israel. The meeting followed Mr. Trump’s surprise announcement that the U.S. would lift sanctions on the Syrian government, a move Israel had opposed.
And amid increasingly dire warnings of imminent starvation in Gaza, the Trump administration reportedly has been pressuring Israel to restore the flow of humanitarian and food aid that Israel blocked in a bid to pressure Hamas to capitulate.
Stoking internal Israeli criticism of the Netanyahu government is a report that the U.S. may no longer condition its own major pact with Saudi Arabia on Saudi normalization with Israel. Normalization would be a massive achievement for Mr. Netanyahu and a potential turning point for Israel regionally. But the prime minister’s recalcitrance on the subject of a future Palestinian state, long a Saudi condition, is being faulted as one of the reasons Israel is missing out on this opportunity.
“There is a lot of shock in Israel that the U.S. has different priorities than Israel,” says Mitchell Barak, an analyst who worked with Mr. Netanyahu in the 1990s. “Until now Israel had tremendous influence on foreign policy through connections, friendships in the White House, and by leveraging support in Congress,” but no longer, he says.
Mr. Trump’s action-packed second term, Mr. Barak says, marks the first time there’s a U.S. president Mr. Netanyahu has no sway over.
“If this were President [Joe] Biden, the Israeli right, led by Mr. Netanyahu, would be accusing the American leader of throwing Israel under the bus,” Amit Segal, a political commentator who is considered close to Mr. Netanyahu, wrote May 7 in The Wall Street Journal. “The prime minister would fly to Washington to address Congress and rally senators to petition against the president. But who is Mr. Netanyahu going to persuade now?”
Hawks vs. isolationists
According to the Atlantic Council’s Mr. Lipner and others, wrestling within the White House over the orientation of American foreign policy is responsible for Mr. Trump’s perceived shifts on Israel.
There have been reports, for example, of criticism within the administration that Ron Dermer, Mr. Netanyahu’s top aide and White House point person, had outsized influence with his main point of contact, Mike Walz. Mr. Walz was recently ousted as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser.
“There’s a tilt toward the isolationists, who view the world and U.S. prerogatives very differently from ‘Old School’ Republicans,” says Mr. Lipner.
“It’s clearly finally sinking in that when Trump says ‘America First’ he means ‘America First,’” says Shira Efron, a senior analyst with the Israel Policy Forum, though she adds she thinks “the break is inflated.”
While some Israelis are concerned about Mr. Trump’s recent change of play, she says, most are focused on the return of the remaining hostages and an end to the war.
Mr. Trump has said ending the war in Gaza is exactly what he is aiming to do, and his trip’s agenda includes relaunching negotiations for a truce and comprehensive hostage deal.
Israel meanwhile has called up tens of thousands of reservists with plans to deploy them to conquer Gaza to deliver the long promised, yet elusive, “final victory” over Hamas.
“Most Israelis see a war with no end that could dig us into the Gaza mud for who knows how many years. Look at all the reservists, the injured, and the PTSD in this country. Israel also needs to heal,” says Dr. Efron. “There is yearning on the part of the Israeli public for Trump to save us … and possibly force Israel’s hand.”
