Who will rule Gaza, if not Hamas? Unanswered question dogs ceasefire.
| Amman, Jordan; and Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip
In the Gaza Strip, Hamas is back.
Less than two weeks into its ceasefire deal with Israel, the militant Islamist group is emerging from its tunnels to stage military rallies and ceremonial parades by gun-toting, balaclava-clad fighters.
It is deploying uniformed police to patrol Gaza’s ruined streets. And it has resumed some of the government services that it used to provide before the war.
Why We Wrote This
A key aim of Israel’s war against Hamas was to eliminate the militant group. But with the ceasefire, Hamas has reasserted its rule over Gaza. Can that last?
That hangs a giant question mark over Gaza’s future. Hamas says it is ready to hand over the government of the strip (though not its weapons), but it is proving hard to find another entity ready to take that responsibility that is acceptable to all sides.
That challenge is threatening to undermine the ceasefire.
Hamas knows that as long as it is in charge, Israel will maintain its blockade of Gaza, and the international community will hold back reconstruction aid. That would stymie two of Hamas’ main goals.
Rival Palestinian factions controlling the Palestinian Authority, which holds sway in the West Bank, such as Fatah, are unwilling to work directly with Hamas to form a new government administration. Nor is Israel permitting the PA’s return to Gaza.
That leaves a weakened but defiant Hamas still ruling Gaza, 15 months after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a massive attack on the organization in retaliation for its murderous raid on Israel. He pledged then to completely eliminate the group.
Instead, outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said recently that U.S. intelligence services “assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost” since October 7, 2023.
Hamas may have lost its top leaders and much of its regional diplomatic support. But “there is no doubt that the continued vacuum in Gaza … means that Hamas will remain the default ruler of the Strip,” says Ashraf Ajrami, a former Palestinian minister and political analyst.
Restoring municipal services
Last weekend, the world watched as gun-toting, ski-masked Hamas Al Qassem Brigades fighters paraded four female Israeli hostages into Palestine Square in Gaza City, before handing them over to Israel at a rally with much fanfare.
But what truly marks Hamas’ strength, according to residents, is its quiet restoration of government services, such as security, schools, water supply, and trash collection in towns and refugee camps across Gaza.
Armed policemen in blue uniforms, who until this month’s ceasefire were targets for Israeli drones, have been seen over the past week in the streets of Deir Al Balah, Rafah, and Khan Yunis, in southern Gaza, providing security and cracking down on the theft of aid. Police and Hamas security personnel have been assisting tens of thousands of displaced Gazans to return to the north.
As the United Nations and international partners bring in over 600 trucks of food and medical aid each day, the most since Israel launched its offensive in October 2023, residents are reporting a drop in looting and price gouging. They attribute it to the return of Hamas policemen.
For many Gazans, it is a welcome return of law and order.
“Seeing uniformed police during this difficult time gives us hope,” says Moeen Al Malahy, a displaced government worker in Deir Al Balah. “It is a sign that order is being restored, and we can begin to rebuild our lives.”
The police are not Hamas fighters, he points out, but civil police employed by the Hamas-led government. “The municipal governments are starting to show their commitment to the community,” adds Mr. Malahy, “This is a positive step forward.”
No alternative - yet
Hamas recognizes that its continued rule would prevent international funding for Gaza’s reconstruction and a relaxation of Israel’s blockade.
Hamas politburo official Moussa Abu Marzouk told Saudi TV station Al Arabiya on Monday that Hamas was willing to cede government of the Gaza Strip to an entity that enjoyed support from Palestinian factions, regional powers, and Washington.
He said Hamas was “open to dialogue with all parties except Israel” to formulate a plan for Gaza’s future.
Before leaving office, the Biden administration proposed that the Palestinian Authority should invite international partners to establish and run an interim administration, staffed by Palestinians from Gaza and the Authority, in coordination with Israel. The plan never got off the ground, not least because Israel has rejected the idea of the Authority playing any role in Gaza.
Egypt has called for the formation of a governing committee of Gazan technocrats and community leaders not aligned with either Fatah or Hamas. In a sign of how pragmatic Hamas has become since Israel killed its hardline leader Yahya Sinwar, the new leadership agreed to the Egyptian initiative, ceding Hamas’ formal control of Gaza.
Hamas also agreed for the proposed committee to work under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority.
But Fatah, the Palestinian faction that controls the PA, rejected the Egyptian proposal earlier this month. It demanded that the Palestinian Authority become the sole ruler of Gaza, with no Hamas involvement. It also objected to Hamas being the only player to hold weapons.
The result is a standoff.
Eyes on elections
Hamas officials previously told The Monitor that their movement supports a two-year reconstruction period under an interim government of technocrats – agreed upon by all Palestinian factions – leading to elections in Gaza, West Bank, and East Jerusalem for a new united Palestinian government.
Hamas would appear to hope that its armed resistance to Israel, and its role in securing the release of Palestinian prisoners in return for Israeli hostages, would propel it to victory in such elections.
Yet Hamas’ political goals do not mean it is willing to surrender its arms in Gaza.
Even if an international or Arab military force were to take over responsibility for security, “disarming Hamas in Gaza is not realistic,” says Sari Orabi, a Palestinian political analyst and Hamas observer.
Hamas could be persuaded not to use its weapons, insiders say, only if the current ceasefire holds, if the new government entity does not collaborate directly with Israel, and if Israel refrains from long-term military occupation of Gaza.
“Hamas does not want a guerrilla insurgent war in Gaza,” says Mr. Orabi. “But it is ready for it. The question depends on how the Israeli government proceeds.”
