Skip to footer

Q&A: What's with the war talk surrounding Iran?

Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have escalated in recent weeks as the US and Europe ramp up sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The country’s currency took a nosedive after President Obama signed legislation on Dec. 31 targeting Iran’s Central Bank. Tehran has responded with threats to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for international oil shipments. We examine six key questions.

Office of the Supreme Leader/AP/File
Iranian army cadets seen during a graduation ceremony in a military university, in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 10, 2011. Iran continues to threaten to cut off access to the Strait of Hormuz, and just this weekend claimed they have begun enriching uranium. As tensions with the West increase, what is to be made of talk of war?

1. What are the odds of armed conflict?

Office of the Supreme Leader/AP/File
Iranian army cadets seen during a graduation ceremony in a military university, in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 10, 2011. Iran continues to threaten to cut off access to the Strait of Hormuz, and just this weekend claimed they have begun enriching uranium. As tensions with the West increase, what is to be made of talk of war?

  • By Dan Murphy Staff Writer

The short answer for this year is “low.” But all the muscle flexing in recent months has increased the risk. 

That posturing has included US sanctions; a European agreement in principle to an oil embargo on Iran; apocalyptic warnings by Iranian, American, and Israeli politicians; and military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil tankers pass each day.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, facing an economy in a tailspin and fears of imminent military action against Iran, has gone into aggressive speech mode, as much to get Iranians to rally around the flag as to scare the United States.

Israel hints from time to time that it’s planning a unilateral attack, but that generally appears to be an attempt to push the US to take a tougher line rather than a statement of genuine intent. US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta cautioned Israel against such an attack during an appearance on CBS' Face the Nation on Sunday. "We have common cause here" with Israel, Mr. Panetta said. "And the better approach is for us to work together."

The real wild card is the risk of unplanned violence: an Iranian naval commander taking it into his own head to attack a US ship, or the US mistaking innocuous maneuvering as a hostile act and firing first.

1 of 6
Mark Sappenfield
Editor

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

Subscribe to insightful journalism

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.