Russia and the US seem near a Ukraine peace deal. Kyiv’s role may be moot.
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Fred Weir Special correspondent
| Moscow
President Donald Trump’s hopes of securing a quick Ukraine peace deal hang in the balance after Washington’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held his fourth Kremlin meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday.
The focus of today’s talks is reportedly to bridge the gap between Russia’s demands for recognition of its annexations, and those of Europe-backed Ukraine to ensure its territorial integrity and security.
While the gap between the two combatants remains wide, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking to CBS on Thursday, sounded optimistic that a deal might be reached soon.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onMoscow and Washington seem near agreement on a peace plan for Ukraine – though Kyiv’s approval is another question. That’s got Russia feeling positive, even if the talks don’t pan out.
“There are several signs that we are moving in the right direction,” he said. “Still there are elements of this deal which need to be fine-tuned.”
Russia’s plans for Ukraine
In previous meetings, Mr. Putin insisted that he was ready to stop fighting, but only if he was shown a road map to a permanent settlement that achieved Russia’s main war objectives.
After those talks, Mr. Trump publicized a plan that Russian analysts say was basically acceptable to the Kremlin. In it, a full ceasefire would take effect along the existing battlefront, the United States would grant legal recognition to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and Ukraine would forgo NATO membership. In addition, the U.S. would begin easing the blizzard of sanctions that have been leveled against Russia for over a decade.
Ukraine would receive “robust security guarantees” provided by European powers – but not the U.S. – and some small territorial swaps might take place. Major issues that Mr. Putin has explicitly listed as Russian war goals would be left to further negotiations. Those issues include substantial Ukrainian demilitarization, the exclusion of Ukrainian ultranationalists from government, language and religious rights for Ukrainian Russian-speakers, and the final territorial settlement.
The U.S. had intended to present that Moscow-Washington agreement to Ukrainian and European leaders in London this past week. But that fell through when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy balked, especially at recognizing Russian ownership of Crimea, and top U.S. diplomats canceled plans to attend the meeting.
Mr. Trump blamed Mr. Zelenskyy for derailing the peace process. But he also chided Mr. Putin for launching a massive aerial attack Wednesday night on Kyiv, claiming “We’re putting a lot of pressure on Russia, and Russia knows that.”
(Although Russian media reports have blamed Ukraine for the apparent assassination of Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik when a car exploded in Moscow today, there is no indication that the general’s death has had an effect on the peace talks.)
A big gap between the adversaries
In the absence of consensus, Ukrainian and European officials have drawn up an alternative list of steps toward peace that differs very sharply from the outline earlier agreed between Mr. Putin and Mr. Witkoff.
The pro-Ukrainian draft rejects any form of recognition of Russian occupation of any Ukrainian land, rules out limits on Kyiv’s military, calls for strong security guarantees for Ukraine backed by the U.S., urges against rapid sanctions relief for Russia, and suggests that Ukrainian reconstruction be funded by Russian assets that were seized in the West at the war’s outset.
Experts in Russia say the subject of the present U.S.-Russia talks is to find ways, if any, to reconcile these two very different approaches and arrive at a common position before any ceasefire can be arranged.
“Right now, Russia is willing to discuss and move forward on the basis of the Trump plan. But what to do if this proves absolutely unacceptable to Ukraine, Britain, and European powers?” says Alexei Mukhin, director of the Center for Political Information, an independent consultancy in Moscow. “Russian leaders want assurances that the U.S. will work to bring them all onto a common path.”
Mr. Putin has spelled out Russia’s key war objectives many times, and analysts say that after over three years of hard fighting and reported massive casualties, he probably doesn’t have much room for compromise.
“It’s wartime, and Russia is awash with patriotic rhetoric,” says Sergei Strokan, an international affairs columnist for the Moscow business daily Kommersant. “If Putin should backtrack on his basic demands, which he himself has expressed, that would be a very hard sell for Russian public opinion.”
An escape hatch for Mr. Putin?
Many Russian analysts express frustration with Mr. Trump’s “superficial” approach, which emphasizes haste and broad strokes at the expense of comprehensive negotiations that consider every detail and contingency.
“Russia has said many times that it wants a reliable, long-term peace settlement, not a quick memorandum that fails to resolve any of the basic issues,” says Mr. Strokan.
Moscow might request the Trump administration to split the negotiation process, separating the process of normalizing U.S.-Russia relations – a key Russian goal – from the thorny, and likely impossible, efforts to achieve a generally acceptable peace in Ukraine, says Mr. Mukhin.
“The stream of talks on restoring bilateral ties is proving very successful. Both sides want it and it promises a lot of long-term benefits,” he says. “Why should the broader relationship be held hostage to Ukraine? Let those negotiations continue on a different track.”
Many experts say that in the absence of a clear and generally-agreed blueprint for a peace settlement, no ceasefire is likely to last. Some Russian analysts even suggest that Mr. Trump’s frequently repeated threat to walk away from peace talks if they don’t bear quick fruit might be the outcome best for Russia.
“Trump is looking for a pretext to continue the process of normalizing relations with Russia, while getting out of Ukraine,” says Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser. “By agreeing to his ceasefire plan, Putin is giving him that pretext.”
His clear implication: When the ceasefire expires without what Moscow regards as a satisfactory settlement, Russia will return to the battlefield to reach its goals.
