Why Trump’s fight with Colombia over deportation flights has likely just begun
| Mexico City
Colombian President Gustavo Petro appears to have backed down from a heated – and very public – faceoff with U.S. President Donald Trump over deportation flights this past weekend.
But, contrary to media accounts and the president’s own press office, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Trump has “won.”
“This was round one of what is going to be a very drawn-out fight,” says Sergio Guzmán, director of risk consultancy firm Colombia Risk Analysis.
Why We Wrote This
The media have painted Donald Trump as the victor in his showdown with Colombia, after Colombia appeared to relent on accepting military flights carrying deportees. But experts say the faceoff could herald more conflict.
Mr. Trump has called illegal immigration a national emergency, and in his focus on combating it, he’s enlisted the U.S. military’s help at both the border and in carrying out deportation flights.
Colombia blocked the arrival of two U.S. military airplanes flying deportees into the country early Sunday morning, with Mr. Petro labeling it inhumane and calling for a process that treats deportees with “dignity and respect.” Colombia received some 14,000 deportees from the U.S. between January and December 2024, but this was the first known attempt on a military plane.
A flurry of tweets throughout the day escalated between the two leaders, with Mr. Trump threatening first 25%, then 50% tariffs on all Colombian imports. Mr. Petro announced his own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to Colombia, also promising to raise them to 50%.
But Sunday night saw both sides say an agreement had been reached. The White House said in a statement that Colombia had “agreed to all of President Trump’s terms,” including the use of military flights.
Meanwhile, a representative from the Colombian presidential office said that Colombia “has the presidential plane ready to facilitate the return of Colombians who were going to arrive in the country this morning on deportation flights.” The statement did not address – or contradict – future U.S. plans to use military aircraft in deportations.
“It’s not a question of removals”
Latin American countries have been bracing themselves for Mr. Trump’s promised mass deportations, but Mr. Petro’s confrontation with Mr. Trump took many by surprise both in terms of its rapid escalation – and in how Mr. Petro appeared to concede under U.S. threats. Although the Colombian leader’s unusually public diplomacy could mean more repercussions from the U.S., he drew attention to recent developments in U.S. deportations, the use of U.S. military aircraft, which could generate more pushback from regional leaders down the line.
“We’ll see more questioning and possibly objections to the use of the military to augment the U.S.’s ability to deport,” says Eric Sigmon, an analyst and former migration expert in the U.S. government. “It’s not a question of removals,” but of how different arms of the government are getting involved in border security in new ways.
As many Latin American countries, including Colombia and Mexico, know firsthand, the involvement of the armed forces in civilian policing can often lead to a jump in human rights abuses.
“The military isn’t trained for” deportations, says Mr. Sigmon.
Mexico refused a request last week to let a U.S. military aircraft land with migrants, though with much less fanfare. Two U.S. military aircraft landed in Guatemala with roughly 160 deportees on Friday. Brazil’s foreign ministry over the weekend condemned what it called “degrading treatment” of Brazilians after migrants were handcuffed on their deportation flight from the U.S., and in which some reported “mistreatment” during the flight.
Honduras has called an emergency meeting of the Community of Latin and Caribbean States on Thursday to discuss migration and U.S. deportations.
“It will be an opportunity to address strategic issues for the region, such as cooperation on migration, protection of human rights,” said a statement from Colombia’s presidential office Sunday night.
“Petro wanted to become the head of the global resistance on Trump,” says Mr. Guzmán. “But he did it to great consequences for the country’s economy.” Although the U.S. backed down from imposing sanctions, their language “suggests that Trump can still sign them whenever he wants. It’s a sword hanging over us.”
