Can Ted Cruz save Pat Roberts in Kansas?

Sen. Pat Roberts needs to rally conservatives to his side in a very tight race. With an appearance Thursday, Sen. Ted Cruz aims to help in trying to emphasize the Kansas senator's Republican credentials.

|
Orlin Wagner/AP
Sen. Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas (l.) answers a question during a debate with independent candidate Greg Orman (r.) in Overland Park, Kan., Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2014.

Can Ted Cruz save Pat Roberts? On Thursday he’s going to try. Firebrand Senator Cruz (R) of Texas, an architect of last year’s government shutdown and a favorite of the GOP’s tea party faction, travels to Wichita, Kan., to kick off a bus tour for (highly) endangered Sen. Roberts (R) of Kansas.

Fellow conservative Sen. Tom Coburn (R) of Oklahoma will join in the kickoff. Together they’ll try to paint independent candidate Greg Orman as a tool of the Democrats and emphasize Roberts's Republican credentials. That may be the best and only hope for Roberts to keep his seat.

“To stop the liberal Harry Reid-Barack Obama agenda, we must win the Senate Majority – and we can’t do that without Pat Roberts back in the Senate,” Cruz said in a statement prior to the event.

So far, the Roberts campaign has received little spark from high-profile GOP surrogate campaigners. Former Sen. Bob Dole, a Kansas icon, didn’t appear to do much to stir event crowds.

But Cruz might help. Roberts’s problem in this unusual race (the Democrat candidate dropped out) is that he’s losing his own voters – Republicans, in a highly Republican state, who generally support, you know, Republicans.

At least he’s been losing too many of them. You can see this in a recent SurveyUSA poll of the state. Roberts gets just 66 percent of the Republican base in this survey. Mr. Orman gets 27 percent of the Republican vote, along with 71 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of independents.

Unsurprisingly, Orman leads overall in this poll, 47 to 42 percent.

Now this is just one poll, and there’s evidence Roberts has reversed this trend lately. A CNN/ORC survey released on Wednesday had Roberts as the choice of 82 percent of likely Republican voters, with Orman getting only 15 percent. Overall, Roberts leads in this survey, 49 to 48 percent.

Given the margin of error, that’s essentially a tie. Thus Roberts needs to keep working on his GOP problem if he’s going to earn a fourth term.

“Turnout is likely to be key – the higher the number of Republicans who vote, the better for Roberts, and Republicans have been at least 43 percent of the vote (and usually higher) in Kansas elections since 2000,” CNN polling director Keating Holland told the network’s Eric Bradner and Dana Bash.

Enter Cruz. It’s possible moderates may be turned off by some of Cruz’s positions on issues. He’s one of the few Republicans to publicly denounce the US Supreme Court’s recent move to not accept gay marriage cases, essentially legalizing same-sex marriage in 30 states. He was prominent in the government shutdown last year – an action opposed by most in the GOP establishment.

But right now, independents and moderates look to be swinging Orman’s way in any case. Roberts needs to rally conservatives to his side in a very tight race. The RealClearPolitics rolling average of major surveys puts Orman in the lead by 2.4 percentage points at the moment.

“As a smart operative told us this week, Kansas voters seem to have decided to fire Roberts, but they do not yet know if they want to hire Orman. This is one campaign that truly matters, and the outcome is thoroughly unpredictable,” writes Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the University of Virginia political newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to Can Ted Cruz save Pat Roberts in Kansas?
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2014/1009/Can-Ted-Cruz-save-Pat-Roberts-in-Kansas
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe