Democrats’ big election night gives them first hope since Trump’s victory
Democrats just won the first big election since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, while running well ahead of their 2024 numbers in two special congressional races – early signs that liberals’ white-hot fury at the president may help their chances in next year’s midterm elections.
Liberal Judge Susan Crawford won a race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court Tuesday night, leading conservative Judge Brad Schimel by roughly 10 points with most of the vote counted in a state Mr. Trump won just a few months ago.
The race was technically nonpartisan, but it quickly became a nationalized proxy fight between Democrats and President Trump, as well as close adviser and billionaire Elon Musk, who helped make the contest the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history.
Why We Wrote This
In a closely watched Wisconsin court race, Democratic intensity won out over President Donald Trump’s endorsement and Elon Musk’s millions. And while Republicans held on in two Florida special elections, Democrats made gains there, too. It was the first bright spot for Democrats in months.
It was the first big test of whether Mr. Trump’s vocal support and Mr. Musk’s virtually bottomless pockets could counter Democrats’ grassroots intensity. And while it’s just one contest, and there’s still a year and half to go until the midterms, it was a lopsided win in a hotly contested and closely watched race.
The president had endorsed Mr. Schimel, a Republican former state attorney general, and his support was featured heavily in ads aimed at getting Republicans to turn out. A huge chunk of the money for those ads came from Mr. Musk, whose groups spent more than $20 million on the contest – by far the most of any outside donor. Mr. Musk himself campaigned in the state this past weekend, donning a cheesehead hat to hand out $1 million checks to two conservative attendees.
Roughly $100 million was spent on the contest in all, a total more in line with Wisconsin’s Senate or gubernatorial races than past judicial elections.
“Today, Wisconsinites fended off an unprecedented attack on our democracy,” Judge Crawford said in her victory speech. “Our courts are not for sale.”
Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court races were once sleepy affairs. But over the past decade they have increasingly been seen as crucial national bellwethers. This one was especially important because it determined control of the court. Judge Crawford’s win means liberals maintain a one-seat majority – and could strike down a Republican-drawn congressional map that has given the GOP six of the state’s eight House seats, potentially giving Democrats a chance at winning two more seats in 2026. It also means that abortion will likely remain legal in most cases in the state.
This race wasn’t the only contest of the night that suggested that Democrats are hair-on-fire to vote.
While Republicans won a pair of Florida congressional special elections, Democrats performed significantly better in both districts than in the 2024 general election. In the race to fill the seat once held by Michael Waltz, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, Republican Randy Fine won by a 14-point margin in a district that Mr. Trump had won by 30. The swing was even bigger in former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s seat: Republican Jimmy Patronis won by 15 points, after Mr. Trump won the district by 37.
These results look strikingly similar to the special elections early in Mr. Trump’s first term. Democrats went on to have a strong midterm election that handed them control of the House.
Just last week, Democrats flipped a state senate seat in Pennsylvania’s Amish country that Mr. Trump had carried by a 15-point margin in 2024. In late January, they flipped a rural Iowa state senate seat that Mr. Trump had won by a 21-point margin just months earlier. They’ve run well ahead of their 2024 numbers in most other special elections this year as well.
The races’ impact could be felt long before November 2026, though. Mr. Trump has yet to move any significant legislation through Congress, and while Republicans have so far mostly stayed in lockstep with the president, in recent weeks a few have begun voicing concern about some of his actions, including his recent moves on tariffs. If they begin to fear they could lose their seats, they might start acting differently.
Democrats have regularly overperformed in special elections in the Trump era, for a few reasons. The party that doesn’t hold the presidency usually has more fired-up voters who are motivated to turn out. The Trump coalition also includes a lot of voters who don’t pay much attention to politics and come out to vote for him but no one else. At the same time, the Democratic coalition has become disproportionately wealthier and higher-educated, and those voters are more likely to turn out even in smaller, off-cycle elections.
While the 2018 midterm elections were good for Democrats, Mr. Trump’s active involvement helped fire up Republicans in key contests like Senate races in Indiana and Missouri that flipped red, helping the GOP minimize their losses.
And Tuesday’s results weren’t that unusual for a recent Wisconsin Supreme Court race. In 2023, when control of the court was also on the line and abortion access was a top issue, the liberal candidate won by an 11-point margin.
It’s still early. Plenty can change in terms of voters’ mood. Midterm elections will have larger electorates. And no two races are exactly alike. But Tuesday’s results are perhaps the first real good news for Democrats since Mr. Trump won last November.
