John Thune’s leadership win shows limits of MAGA’s reach in Senate

As President-elect Donald Trump made his triumphal return to the U.S. capital Wednesday, he and his allies got a clear reminder that the old establishment guard of the Republican Party isn’t quite dead yet – and remains a force he’ll need to reckon with.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune was elected the new Senate majority leader by his GOP peers Wednesday, putting the upper chamber of Congress in the charge of an institutionally minded, old-school conservative who’s occasionally been willing to break with Mr. Trump.

After 17 years under Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving Senate leader in U.S. history, Senate Republicans had the option of going in a more MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) direction. Instead, they picked a close ally of the outgoing leader.

The GOP vote occurred as Mr. Trump was meeting at the White House with outgoing President Joe Biden, who promised a peaceful transition of power. Earlier in the day, Mr. Trump took a victory lap at a meeting with House Republicans.

The choice in Senate leadership may only matter so much. Senate Republicans are likely to be fairly deferential to Mr. Trump’s Cabinet picks and other nominees, and there was very little daylight between them and Mr. Trump on judicial nominees in his first term. And Mr. Thune has worked to build his relationship with Mr. Trump in recent years.

Mr. Thune made clear he plans to work closely with the White House.

“This Republican team is united. We are one team. We’re excited to reclaim the majority and to get to work with our colleagues in the House to enact President Trump’s agenda,” Mr. Thune said at a press conference shortly after securing the top position. He pledged to “deliver on President Trump’s priorities,” and said he and the GOP “will do everything we can” to process Mr. Trump’s Cabinet nominations quickly.

How Thune beat MAGA favorite Rick Scott

But it wasn’t just Mr. Thune’s victory but the poor showing by the MAGA favorite in the race that signaled most Senate Republicans are still a breed apart from hardcore Trumpers.

Florida Sen. Rick Scott, a close Trump ally who had endorsements from some of Mr. Trump’s most vocal supporters both on and off Capitol Hill, won just 13 votes in the secret ballot. He finished third in the contest, behind Mr. Thune, who had 23 votes on the first ballot, and Texas Sen. John Cornyn, another establishment-leaning lawmaker. Mr. Thune then won on the second ballot over Mr. Cornyn by 29-24.

Nathan Howard/Reuters

Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Rick Scott of Florida exit the Senate Republicans’ leadership election on Capitol Hill in Washington Nov. 13, 2024. Despite support in MAGA circles, Mr. Scott's bid to be majority leader was rebuffed by colleagues.

Mr. Scott only won three more votes in this contest than the 10 he got when he ran against Senator McConnell two years ago as a protest candidate.

Mr. Trump has a much closer relationship to Mr. Scott than to either Mr. Thune or Mr. Cornyn, but stayed neutral in this race. Mr. Trump hates to back a loser and rarely endorses in races he doesn’t think he can win.

That didn’t stop some of Mr. Trump’s closest allies from lobbying for Mr. Scott. He was endorsed by some top MAGA allies, including billionaire businessman Elon Musk, Republican National Convention co-Chair Lara Trump (the president’s daughter-in-law), and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson – along with a loud online push from MAGA keyboard warriors.

These races often turn on personality and relationships more than on pure ideology, and both Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn had spent decades building those friendships and helping out other lawmakers both in their Capitol Hill work and in winning elections. Mr. Scott, who has only been a senator since 2018, tends to keep to himself more. He is best known by his colleagues for running Senate Republicans’ campaign efforts in 2022, when Republicans underperformed after a field of flawed candidates blew winnable races, and for pitching a plan to raise taxes on low-income Americans. The latter caught his GOP colleagues by surprise and became a campaign weapon against the party.

Thune says he won’t end the filibuster

The Senate GOP has gotten much Trumpier in the eight years since Mr. Trump first won office. Most of the Republicans who were willing to buck him in his first term have been replaced by others who are much more loyal to the incoming president. But Senate Republicans are expected to only have a 53-47 majority, just one seat more than they held when Mr. Trump first became president in 2017.

And like then, they have two independent-leaning moderates in Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who defeated a Trump-backed primary challenger in 2022, and Maine Sen. Susan Collins. Neither is a surefire vote on controversial issues. That makes the margin of error pretty small on key legislative votes. Mr. Thune also stated unequivocally Wednesday that he wouldn’t support eliminating the filibuster, the 60-vote threshold required for most major legislation. Mr. Trump has called in the past to get rid of that rule.

While it appears that Republicans will hold on to control of the House of Representatives, it will likely be by just a handful of seats, much slimmer than when Mr. Trump won in 2016.

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican up for reelection in two years, told the Monitor to expect “the typical tug and pull” between the White House and Congress over priorities and specific policies.

“President Trump’s going to try to push his agenda,” he says. “We’re going to work it out and make sure it’s good for everybody – and particularly good for the midterms.”