Shift on power, or power play? Sizing up a kingdom’s claim.

Episode transcript

Clay Collins: The two features most associated with Saudi Arabia are probably deserts and oil wealth. The idea of that kingdom being on course to really “go green” in the environmental sense – prioritizing trees and renewable energy – might not be easy to process. 

When he was last on this show in August 2022, the Monitor’s Taylor Luck, who covers the Middle East and North Africa from Amman, Jordan, spoke about a bottom-up social transformation in Saudi Arabia, and how the power of a new generation’s thinking was as big a story as the kingdom’s renowned mega projects. Taylor joins us today to talk about a potentially transformational set of projects that are mostly top-down. Collectively, they amount to a kind of epic moonshot, even by Saudi standards.

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Collins: This is “Why We Wrote This.” I’m Clay Collins. Welcome back, Taylor.

Taylor Luck: Hi, Clay. It’s great to be back. 

Collins: So your story opens with a scene of construction, but it’s for a 30,000-sapling forest. Incredible. An agricultural engineer whom you call a “Saudi Johnny Appleseed” is telling you about healthy native plants, and this is not just “stick them in the arid ground and hope,” right? This is a calculated act of de-desertification. There’s rainwater catchment. There’s the idea of regenerating aquifers. It seems like quite a gambit. 

Luck: Well, it is quite the gambit. And that is what the Saudi Green Initiative is. Reading it out loud, it sounds like Saudi Arabia’s throwing everything and the kitchen sink at climate action. Their stated goals are to plant 10 billion trees; cut 278 million tons of carbon emissions by 2030; push the country’s energy mix to 50% renewables in seven years; and reserve 30% of the country’s lands and oceans as nature reserves; and go net zero by 2060. 

Collins: It is quite amazing to read. 

Luck: Yes. This is a crown prince and a country known for moonshots – the idea that maybe they’ll never hit their goal, but along the way achieve transformational change. Now, when we talk about climate, there’s even added skepticism. Climate activists and negotiators have always accused Saudi Arabia as being a spoiler at climate negotiations. They’re the ones trying to water down the language in the text. So to have this country all of a sudden say, “we wanna be part of the new green era,” uh, is quite a big claim. And I think it’s one that you can only examine from on the ground.

So this is a huge undertaking, but it’s starting at the very local level. It’s starting in these areas where desertification has ravaged. I mean, with Abu Brahim, when I was with him out there, there was not a single tree in sight on one side. And on the other side there were already shrubs and trees from his own little experiments the past few years. And now all of a sudden he has all the resources imaginable at his command.

Collins: Right. What [else] are the Saudis doing to prove that they’re for real? And what does the kingdom’s record on these “moonshots,” as you call them, say?

Luck: Well, first off, the record on the moonshots aren’t clear yet. There’s a lot of work going on the ground, but the benefits are not yet fully seen. Is this being used as perhaps cover, or a way to, in a more responsible fashion, continue to produce oil? Perhaps. Will it contribute to technological advancements to reduce carbon emissions? Will they contribute to combating desertification? On the ground, my answer that I found was: yes. 

Collins: Right. I have to drill down a little more, so to speak, on the credibility issue. I mean, it’s been shown that big oil knew about the likely effects of emissions on the environment way back in the 1970s. That’s half a century ago. Why all the action – and you describe a lot of different actions – now?

Luck: I think there’s two dynamics going on. I think one, Big Oil is reading the room and seeing where the world and societies and technologies are heading. They want in on this new energy transition, and to maintain their monopoly or their influence in the energy market.

I think the second dynamic is: The severe weather events are no longer ignorable. They are increasing. Hotter temperatures, going over 50 degrees Celsius, for long stretches. Increasing desertification. So not only is climate change visible, it’s actually a threat to their country’s development and prosperity. They have a huge plan to make Saudi Arabia a huge destination for finance, for development. And if you have hotter temperatures and deserts sweeping through, and dust storms, it’s a major problem. 

Collins: Tell us a little about the Middle East Green Initiative, and Saudi potentially taking a leadership role in that bigger initiative.

Luck: For the Middle East Green Initiative, basically, Saudi Arabia is saying that, OK, we know we can’t combat the regional effects of climate change alone, so we’re gonna go and help our neighboring states. So basically they’re planning to help plant 40 billion more trees in surrounding countries, and help them find ways to get to net zero quicker. That involves knowledge sharing, technology sharing and so forth. And again, it’s one of those things where you kind of look at it and you wonder how much of this is just diplomacy and how much of it is action. But when you look at previous desertification trends, it’s always what’s going on in your neighbor or further upstream that ends up affecting you. And I think they’re trying to prevent that from happening.

And again, it also goes to them maintaining an edge. They’re putting more money into green hydrogen development than any other country in the world right now. This is a low-carbon energy that can be used for heating, industrial heating, and transportation. Countries like Japan and [South] Korea, which are unable to maximize solar radiation and wind energy like other countries are really considering this as a major source for their transition. So already Saudi Arabia is gaining attention from people because they’re one of the few countries in the world that has the resources and the kind of centralized decisionmaking to really supercharge some of these technologies.

Collins: Right. Most of what we’ve talked about to this point is big-think strategic action. What’s been the role of ordinary Saudis, and how important is the buy-in of young Saudis, the startup Saudis, like the ones that you met and talked about last time you were here? 

Well, I think the role for young people is quite large in this. Because at the end of the day, with all the proclamations and declarations in the world, it takes individuals and their behaviors and their consumption patterns to really make climate action work. So when I was on the ground this time around, I found a lot of young Saudis who were trying to develop climate tech. Um, trying to make a glass that takes advantage of solar radiation, ways to extend the lives of batteries for charging [with] stored solar energy. 

At KAPSARC, which is this huge sprawling campus, which was originally devoted to petroleum research, I met young engineers who are now researching green hydrogen, solar energy, wind energy. And I think Generation Z Saudis see climate as very pertinent to them because they’re gonna have to live with it. But they also see opportunity. They see what’s happening in Europe, in the US. They see these venture capitalists who are focusing on green initiatives, and they wanna be part of that.

Collins: Does the geography and the environment of Saudi Arabia and even its long held identity as an oil center shape how people there think about the environment and sustainability and of what “green” looks like? 

Luck: I think geography plays a huge role in the way Saudis view climate change and the green transition. As a country, it’s vast. Takes 22 hours to go from the southern point to the northern point if you drive nonstop. People are used to driving. People are used to oil and fuel being essentially dirt cheap. So even though there’s a real desire for people to protect and support nature, because large swaths of the country don’t have green cover or trees. At the same time, I think, the idea of using electric cars or driving less, it’s gonna be a lot harder to make that shift. 

And then just in terms of “what is green,” you know, we think of forests as natural solutions to curb climate change. But for Saudi Arabia, they’re also viewing shrubs as part of the defense line against desertification. These little tiny scraggly bushes that maybe only reach two feet high. or a foot high. But for them, this is not only stopping the sands, but it’s also producing oxygen and diminishing carbon.

And so when I was driving out with these Saudi ecologists and arborists, we would stop every 15 minutes in the middle of the desert. And they would just stop and look at a hill where there had been recent rains, and they’re just a slight light-green patch on the hill. And they’d just admire it. And they’d say, “Masha’ Allah,” Arabic for “God willed it.” So one thing I learned is that, we always look to the trees. We also have to take care of the shrubs when we talk about bringing life back to the desert. 

Collins: And done intelligently with native plants that have a high likelihood of success. Um, I’d like to talk a little about the special reporting challenges from inside Saudi Arabia. Did you get every perspective you wanted? Was it hard to get images that you needed? 

Luck: Well, I think one difficulty with Saudi Arabia, especially when it comes to a program being championed by the crown prince [is], no one’s gonna go on the record and criticize it. Right? So I think, you know, one of the keys is just to spend a lot of time with people and allow them to know you. And talk off the record. And talk away from work. So you might not be mentioning things that people told you, but you start gaining a more informed idea of how much of it is spin. And so I think the key for me is not just sourcing, but it’s the time spent with sources. 

Collins: Did you leave feeling as though, you know, real progress is coming, that it’s credible?

Luck: I came away feeling that, yes, progress is on the way. But it’s in all these little different spurts and starts and stops. But again, when you have a huge comprehensive plan, it’s hard to see which parts will actually be carried out. So for example, the afforestation efforts. I went to multiple areas and deserts across the country. And there I found tons of projects, very specifically targeting native plants. And these were people who for decades have been wanting to protect natural lands and to promote tree growing. But they were either ignored or laughed at by authorities and by their communities. Suddenly they’re given billions of dollars, access to the top experts. And that was something that was real. 

When it came to solar energy, there is a shift towards renewables. But, tellingly, they wouldn’t let me view any of the solar power plants. When it came to carbon capture technologies, lots of money is going into it. But again, it’s a very secretive technology because it’s part of their oil production, it’s part of their country’s lifeblood. So they’re not exactly gonna allow you to see it. I was able to arrange through an energy conference in Riyadh to go fly out to see some of these energy facilities with Aramco. And then instead of taking us to the oil facilities, they veered off to the side. And they took us to a nature reserve they set up, where they had reintroduced Arabian oryx, which are endangered gazelles. So it was nice to see that. But they flew us all out basically, as one journalist said, “to see a bunch of goats.” So I think it’s difficult to get the full picture.

Collins: You spoke in your story to a Saudi princess who also happens to be one of the kingdom’s top sustainability development consultants. Um, tell us a little bit about that encounter and what that left you thinking. 

Luck: Yes, I did have a chance to speak with Princess Noura bint Turki Al-Saud. And she’s had this consulting firm for several years. And now with all this focus on a green transition, she’s been pretty busy. So she works with the government, with the private sector, with local communities, on ways that they can be more sustainable. And the important thing here, it’s not just about planting a few trees, but the idea that you can alter your business model or incorporate [in] your business model ways to use less energy, to have energy efficient building. And from talking to her and from meeting with young Saudis opening up businesses now, it seems that sustainability is no longer a trend or a buzzword. It’s just kind of a basic [feature] that you have to include in your plans.

She told me that there is this misconception wherever she goes, that Saudis are just basically oil and gas guzzlers. And she said: “People are stuck with this thought that oil is bad. You’re an oil producer, therefore there’s no way you can contribute to preserving the environment, let alone address climate change. But in fact, it is being embraced.” But my question is: Is this sudden embrace enough to offset the carbon produced from Saudi oil? For that answer, we can only wait and see. 

Collins: Thanks for being here, Taylor, and for all of your work throughout your region.

Luck: Thank you so much, Clay, and it’s always a pleasure. 

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Collins: Thanks for listening. You can find our show notes, with a link to the story we just discussed, to more of Taylor’s work, and to more stories about balance and other values, at CSMonitor.com/WhyWeWroteThis. This episode was hosted by me, Clay Collins, and produced by Jingnan Peng. Jeff Turton and Alyssa Britton were our sound engineers, with original music by Noel Flatt. Produced by the Christian Science Monitor. Copyright 2023.