2020
March
09
Monday

Monitor Daily Podcast

March 09, 2020
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Clayton Collins
Director of Editorial Innovation

Welcome to your week. Today’s stories: how globalization may evolve, the thought shift underlying one U.S. primary, why charter schools seem high and dry, the kindness of (actual) rats, and six helpings of progress. First, a look at where rising diversity could change how we assess emerging global trends.

If the future is female – or at least less male – then what about the future of ... futurists? 

The title has more often been linked to names like Issac Asimov, Alvin Toffler, and George Gilder than to ones like Faith Popcorn. But a report in Forbes cites a powerhouse roster of women futurists and notes that a third of the field’s professional association members now are women. 

Why might that matter as the world confronts new challenges, from coronavirus to oil shocks? 

Preparedness – the work of good futurists – comes from analyzing emerging changes. That requires data, but also an openness to unknowns. As Shane Parrish wrote in his Farnham Street blog, “[Generally], the people who know the most about something talk in terms that involve uncertainty. ... People that know the least tend to talk in absolutes.”

Those camps don’t break reliably along gender lines. But futurist thinking has skewed male and white. I reached out to Amy Webb, a quantitative futurist I’ve met. She sits atop that Forbes list. 

“Our field ... has been around for the past century, but until recently [it] was dominated by men,” she replied, “and that meant a limited field of view.” In teaching an MBA course at New York University’s Stern School, Amy likes to mentor young women and people of color in the science of strategic foresight.

Her work adds perspectives. With the extra nuance comes, ultimately, a more accurate take on what's coming. “[T]he most reliable future forecasts,” Amy notes, “are those that account for deep uncertainty, and include a diverse set of insights.”


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Today’s stories

And why we wrote them

China Daily/Reuters
A textile worker is seen on a fabric production line at a factory in Qingdao, China, Feb. 14, 2020. From the U.S. to Africa, industries that rely on Chinese textiles are worried about how the coronavirus outbreak is affecting supplies.

As the global economy sways on bad news, few expect nations’ interconnectedness to end. “Deglobalization” isn’t quite the word. But our writers found some signs of a coming evolution.

This next one isn’t a horse-race story. It’s a look at how much thought has shifted in a key state – and how different voters’ motivations are – since Bernie Sanders beat his then-rival there in 2016.

Should school choice focus on opportunities for disadvantaged students, access to private and religious schools – or both? We look at how a movement is getting caught in a clash of civic values.

Berufstierrettung Rhein Neckar/Reuters
Rats tend to get a bad rap, particularly when they are scurrying around human neighborhoods, like this one seen in Bensheim-Auerbach, Germany Feb. 24, 2019. But a new study suggests that these humble rodents share some prosocial traits with humans.

Three food pellets evidently won’t bribe a rat. At least, not enough to influence the creature to harm a fellow rat. One of our science writers explores what motivates compassion in the realm of vermin.

Points of Progress

What's going right
Staff
Places where the world saw progress, for the March 16, 2020 Monitor Weekly.

This feels like another week for which to get fortified. So, herewith, another roundup of global good – with news about wages, whales, wind, and more.

Staff

The Monitor's View

AP
People walk out of an Amazon Go store in Seattle March 4.

A society’s response to an epidemic, writes historian Frank Snowden in a new book on the topic, is a lens on the moral priorities of its leaders. Did they create a resilient community during more settled times? Have they built up trust in institutions? Epidemics reveal “the moral relationships that we have toward each other,” the Yale scholar told The New Yorker.

A current example of moral priorities in the United States is the number of companies promising to keep paying employees – even temporary wage-earners – despite the shock and disruption of the coronavirus outbreak. Congress could decide soon to mandate paid leave during the health crisis. Yet many corporate leaders are a step ahead in announcing no layoffs or furloughs, creating a sort of cordon sanitaire that protects jobs and eases fears.

At Microsoft, 4,500 hourly employees “will continue to receive their regular wages even if their work hours are reduced,” says company President Brad Smith. Similar commitments have been made by Google and other big firms. “I encourage all of our peers to consider this as well,” tweeted Chuck Robbins, chief executive of Cisco.

One practical reason to retain workers during the crisis is that, up to now, the task of finding new workers has been difficult. The U.S. economy is in its 11th year of expansion. The jobless rate is a low 3.5%. Many companies are enjoying record profits. They can afford a temporary loss.

Yet another reason may be a trend among companies, made strong since the 2008 financial crisis, to better consider how they treat workers, customers, suppliers, local communities, and the natural environment. Such “social responsibility” toward stakeholders is often genuine. It can also prevent a high cost to a corporation’s reputation.

The promises of no layoffs during this crisis have become a signifier of ethical progress. Other signs are showing up. Citigroup is offering leniency to many debtors. Some health insurers are absorbing the cost of copays for customers. For many firms, belt-tightening will come in ways other than hits on the most vulnerable.

Worldwide, business has become the most trusted institution, taking the lead role in global governance, according to the latest Edelman survey. Based on 40 years of surveys for its “trust meter,” the communication firm finds the “trust capital” for businesses depends on three ethical drivers: integrity, dependability, and purpose.

“Business has leapt into the void left by populist and partisan government,” states the 2020 report. “It can no longer be business as usual, with an exclusive focus on shareholder returns.” The survey finds 73% of employees want the opportunity to change society. Nearly two-thirds of consumers make buying choices based on core beliefs.

Epidemics are not extinguished only by new medicines, quarantines, and improved health practices. Societies also need to have their moral priorities in place. Healing the economy with fear-reducing actions is as important as healing the sick.


A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

Many are voicing their fears and worries about the coronavirus. But Christ, ever “voicing good,” is the divine influence that calms our fears, reveals our safety in God, and brings healing to our lives.


A message of love

Mahe Elipe/Reuters
A woman lies in the street during a protest to mark International Women’s Day at Zócalo square in Mexico City, March 8, 2020. Tomorrow, we'll have a story from Whitney Eulich in Mexico City about the country’s "no women" strike Monday over violence against women.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Karen Norris. )

A look ahead

Come back tomorrow. Howard LaFranchi sits down with George Shultz, elder statesman of U.S. foreign policy, and talks about America’s place in the world, the need to curb nuclear weapons, and Mr. Shultz’s White House dance with Ginger Rogers.

More issues

2020
March
09
Monday

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