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Five reasons the Arab Spring has not failed

Given the fissures in Middle Eastern society, it is tempting to think that democracy is bound to fail there. Pessimists argue that the Arab Spring countries will revert to rule by “strongmen.” The Arab Spring may appear to have failed, but in five key respects the Arab world has changed irrevocably.

5. Less US and European support

The attitudes of Americans and Europeans have changed. In the past, any despot in the region worth his salt understood how to present himself as strategically vital to Western interests. For better or for worse, that game is now almost over. Rulers who cannot credibly claim to have popular legitimacy can no longer count on being propped up by Washington, London, or Paris.

Significantly, the restored military regime in Egypt is counting on the Gulf states, not the US, to bankroll it. President Obama has canceled joint US-Egyptian military maneuvers. The minority of Americans who still care about the Arab Spring are urging him to go further. But even if he further cuts US aid to Egypt, it won’t make much difference. Saudi Arabia and The United Arab Emirates can more than compensate.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali is a fellow at the Kennedy School at Harvard, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and the author of “Infidel” and “Nomad.”

© 2013 AYAAN HIRSI ALI

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Mark Sappenfield
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