British historian Niall Ferguson reports that the US "is aging much less quickly than countries like Japan and Germany" and touts its reserves of fossil fuels and minerals worth at least $30 trillion. The big debate now: Should the US permit natural-gas exports?
While the liberal international order may be frail and fractious, what is there to rival it? Indeed, the National Intelligence Council, in its recent report on global trends projected to 2030, says: "The replacement of the United States by another global power and erection of a new international order seems the least likely outcome [for America's role] in this time period."
Nor is it clear that any countries or coalitions are agitating to assume America's role, let alone responsibility for leading a new system – even China. At the beginning of the year, Jimmy Carter's former national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, related a story in which a top Chinese policymaker quipped to one of his US counterparts, "please, let America not decline too quickly." Precipitous US decline, after all, would likely destabilize the global commons upon which China's growth depends.
