Is US recovery shaped like a V, U, L, or W? Yes.
The alphabet was all the rage for economists a year ago, who hotly debated whether the US recovery would be shaped like a V, a U, an L, or a W.
Who knew they'd all be right? It just depends on where in the economy one looks.
Boeing, whose advanced-composite Dreamliner makes its debut at the United Kingdom's Farnborough Air Show this week, is clearly a V-shaped stock: steeply rising after hitting the trough. Dipping below $30 a share in March 2009, it has rebounded impressively to close at $63.18 Monday – nearly halfway back to its prerecession highs.
Stocks generally rose on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 56 points to close at 10,154 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 6 points to close at 1071. But both indexes are down 4 percent or more for the year.
Macy's has done a little better and, thus, qualifies as a U stock: positioned for an upturn that will take awhile. The big retail chain is up dramatically from its lows of late 2008 and early 2009. So far this year, it's only risen a little.
Home Depot looks suspiciously like an L stock – a security that's down with no immediate prospects for recovery – although some analysts see better times ahead. Its share price has fallen from the levels set last August.
National home builder Pulte Group is a W: a roller-coaster stock that fell, recovered, fell, and recovered again. The problem for its shareholders is that Pulte has had even more false starts that have fizzled every time. On Tuesday it closed at $7.93, within an eyelash of its March 2009 low.
In some ways, the stocks illustrate the performance of their industries.
"We are seeing a 'V-shaped' recovery in manufacturing, while the consumer sector is looking more like a 'U shape.' ” writes Bob Doll, chief equity strategist for BlackRock, a New York-based investment asset management firm. "The credit and housing markets, however, are still stuck in an 'L shape.' ”
Actually, Pulte suggests to us more of a W than an L. Either way, the prognosis for the housing market isn't good.
The confidence of builders of new single-family homes fell to a 15-month low in July, the National Association of Home Builders reported Monday.
